The Fed says the balance sheet reduction is over, but there's still that $2.5 trillion of "excess reserves" sitting on the books—exactly that much higher than before the 2020 pandemic. Every round of quantitative easing and tightening basically just raises the floor of the money pool again and again; this game has been played several times now.

What's even more awkward is the inflation data. The official target is 2%, but in reality it's either approaching 3% and still rising, or, even after stripping out short-term volatility, it's at least 2.4%. The pressure on prices that ordinary people feel—at the supermarket, in rent increases—has never really gone away.

How do they digest all those extra printed dollars? The usual trick: let the dollar actively depreciate. In plain terms, that means making all the countries holding US debt and dollar reserves "share the cost"—a move that always seems to work.

The signals from the corporate sector are even more direct. In 2025, bankruptcy filings by large US companies have already reached 655, almost matching the record set in the aftermath of the 2010 financial crisis. The industrial and consumer sectors are especially hard-hit—expensive financing, weak demand, and maturing debt are creating a triple threat that's triggering concentrated credit blowups. Even the Bank of England has commented that some companies now look a lot like the atmosphere before Lehman Brothers collapsed in 2008.

So don't count on any "safe havens." Many people are used to thinking, "if things are messy here, somewhere else will be stable," but in reality, the global economy has long been tied together like a tangled rope, and risks in the dollar system will spread along all sorts of invisible chains to every corner.

What do you think a weaker dollar will mean for crypto assets, stocks, and similar assets? How are you planning to adjust your portfolio in 2026? Share your thoughts in the comments.