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Bitcoin is in trouble, but not for what you think
Over-leveraged traders are no longer the culprit. This time, the real sellers are the long term hodlers who are cashing out their profits en masse.
The numbers that hurt
In the last month, experienced holders have liquidated approximately 400,000 BTC (US$45 billion). This is not retail panic or forced liquidations: it is people who know what they are doing, methodically taking profits in the spot markets.
To put it into perspective, over 319,000 Bitcoins were reactivated in the last month, mainly coins that had not moved for between 6 and 12 months. Translation: massive profit-taking since July.
The real problem: buyers are missing
The “mega whales” ( that hold 1,000-10,000 BTC) started selling months ago. Until recently, institutional players could absorb this supply. Now they can't.
The smaller whales (100-1.000 BTC) have drastically stopped buying. The result: a brutal imbalance between sellers and buyers.
“Whales are simply not buying” —says Markus Thielen of 10x Research.
How much worse can it get?
According to Thielen, this could resemble the bear market of 2021-2022, when large holders sold more than 1 million Bitcoin over nearly a year. If the pace is similar, we could have another 6 months of selling pressure.
Your target drop: US$85,000.
The ironic thing: this drop is more concerning than a leveraged crash. Forced liquidations last for days. The deliberate sales of people who know what they're doing… those can last for months.