Fed late-night consecutive speeches: a turning point signal for the crypto market?

On the evening of November 12th, U.S. time, three heavyweight figures from the Fed took the stage in succession, and the signals they released directly relate to the direction of crypto assets.

First to take the stage is New York Fed President Williams, focusing on the topics of reserves and liquidity. He previously made it clear at the European Central Bank meeting that the current level of reserves at the Fed is "slightly above adequate," and does not rule out the recent restart of asset purchase programs to maintain market liquidity. This is a complex signal for the crypto space—if he further emphasizes that inflationary pressures still exist, the expectations for a rate cut in December may drop from 80% to 70%, the dollar index may surge towards the 104 mark, U.S. Treasury yields may rise in tandem, and BTC and ETH will inevitably face pressure in the short term. However, from another perspective, expanding the balance sheet essentially increases liquidity supply, which in the long term supports risk assets including cryptocurrencies.

At 11 PM, Philadelphia Fed President Harker will take the stage, focusing on the regulatory framework for financial technology. He is expected to discuss AI payment innovations from the perspective of the 2026 FOMC and how to avoid money laundering risks. Harker has always maintained a moderate stance, but if he emphasizes data transparency or antitrust measures this time, fintech stocks may experience short-term fluctuations, and alarms will sound in the crypto payment sector. However, this may not be a bad thing—clarified regulations mean the end of the era of reckless growth, and under the new pattern of "sandbox testing + strict enforcement," compliant projects may gain greater survival space. Small and medium-sized teams should consider seeking ecological partners.

The highlight will be at 11:20 PM, with Fed Governor Waller speaking at the Payment Innovation Conference. He has a relatively friendly attitude towards DeFi and stablecoins, having publicly acknowledged that these tools "are integrating into mainstream finance." Data shows that stablecoin trading volume has reached 19.4 billion this year, and he even proposed a "simplified main account" plan that allows crypto companies to directly interface with the Fed system. This dual stance of "embracing innovation + risk prevention" suggests that the payment sector may undergo transformation by 2026: the market capitalization of stablecoins has exceeded 280 billion, accounting for about 7% of the total crypto market capitalization, with significant cost advantages in global remittance and cross-border payment scenarios. However, if he emphasizes risk management again, BTC may face "regulatory shadows" in the short term.

Overall, tonight's speech is not only about interest rate policy but also redefines the financial landscape. A dovish tone can stabilize the market, while a green light for fintech will ignite the innovation engine. However, the market often overinterprets—Williams' balance sheet expansion may dispel the fantasy of rate cuts, and the statements from Harker and Waller may also block speculative channels. It is inevitable that the volatility in the crypto market will intensify, and it is recommended to focus on the details of the Q&A session, avoid heavy positions, and maintain a wait-and-see attitude. Every word from the Fed could be a turning point, and missing key information can be costly.