#美国终止政府关闭 Here's a judgment that might make people feel a bit uncomfortable — the classic "4-year cycle" logic for $BTC is likely to fail this time. Based on the price movement and the funding situation, we have most likely already stepped into the threshold of a Bear Market.

Interestingly, the party on the US stock market hasn't ended yet. Especially the concept of AI, the bubble is getting bigger and bigger, you know, capital loves these "future technology" stories.

What is the core of the problem? Two words: money. Although the U.S. government shutdown has temporarily come to a halt, the balance sheet reduction is still ongoing. The liquidity in the market is being tightened, and there is not enough capital available; what will support a Bull Market? Unless one day the policy shifts and the tap is turned back on, don't expect the market to turn around.

What do the technical analysts think? Currently, Bitcoin is in the position of "the large-scale 4th wave adjustment"—sounds quite professional, but to put it simply, it means that for the next few months, it might fluctuate back and forth in a certain range. There won't be a crash, but don't fantasize about a sudden surge either. It will be a sideways consolidation, so just be patient.