Is the government shutdown in the US about to end? That's right, the probability of it restarting this Friday, November 14, ( has soared to 91%.

The progress is going smoothly now; the Senate has already approved it. The House of Representatives has basically reached a consensus due to the preliminary negotiations, and the Republicans are expected to allow it to pass. We're just waiting for that person to sign it. Once the restart is confirmed, the funds that have been held up for 44 days will start flowing back into the market.

How keen is the market's sense of smell? The US stock market opened up, with the Nasdaq rising 2.27% in a single day, and the crypto market is also warming up. Everyone is betting on one thing - liquidity is coming back.

However, this time it’s not a one-time crash like a flood beast, but more like a slowly opened faucet: first a rush of urgency, followed by a continuous release of water, with the entire cycle possibly dragging on for more than a month.

How does money flow?
First, let's look at the fastest option. The government employee salary arrears will be paid, referring to the experience from 2018, and it can be credited within 1 to 5 days after the restart. This money will go directly into the consumer market and investment accounts.

The slower parts are project funding and contractor payments. The state government funds have to go through the contract re-examination and invoicing approval process, which may take 1 to 6 weeks; medical and transportation contractors receiving subsidies also have to wait 1 to 3 weeks.

Finally, there are tax refunds and welfare funds. Once this part is initiated, it will create a scale effect, providing a bulk supplement to liquidity.

The logic is straightforward: The Ministry of Finance releases money → Bank reserves increase → Cash flow for residents and enterprises improves → Some funds go to buy risk assets → Liquidity in the stock market and cryptocurrency increases, and prices are supported.

This conduction chain, the first wave of impact is expected to arrive within 1 to 5 days. Is your position ready?