Don't talk about the macro, just look at the Candlestick. The small time frame Candlestick is irrationally jumping up and down. The daily chart Candlestick looks quite good, and it can be seen that the daily chart is oscillating within a large trading range.

Many people ask me why I don't layout short positions for medium to long term. For medium to long term short positions, you can layout at the top of the trading range, but this place definitely cannot be. It can be seen that even during those days of October 11, the VAL support below is still very effective, and the current price is in the discount zone of the trading range. In this kind of place for medium to long term, I only consider laying out long positions. Unless the VAL support below fails, meaning a daily chart solid line closes below 106, I might consider short hedging.
The second chart shows that from the Wyckoff perspective, the daily chart level of $BTC has indeed formed a distribution structure. You might wonder, with these two charts being bullish and bearish respectively, isn't that contradictory? In fact, they are not contradictory; it really depends on whether this distribution has been completed. Therefore, I believe that the distribution at the daily chart level cannot be completed in one or two months. As long as the trading range is not broken, it will continue to oscillate upwards, taking advantage of favorable news to capture high time frame liquidity while distributing to retail investors to complete the sell-off.
Of course, there is also a second type of trend: break below VAL - break below the trading range - distribution completed - a swift drop to 7w8w.