Recently, the financial marketplace has experienced a significant fall, which seems to confirm the predictions of some professionals. The decline starting on the evening of October 28th is actually an early reaction of the market to upcoming economic events.

Analysts point out that this market behavior mainly stems from expectations that the Federal Reserve (FED) may cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Interestingly, market observers have noted that the FED rate observation tools show a 98% probability of a 25 basis point cut this month. However, market participants need to recognize that policy adjustments that meet expectations usually do not bring additional favourable information; what truly moves the market are decisions that exceed expectations.

Therefore, the market had already begun to fall days before the FED officially announced its rate decision, which can be seen as a precursor to the upcoming policy adjustment. When the FED finally announced a 25 basis point cut, the market's reaction became more complex. By observing the reactions and attitudes of Federal Open Market Committee members, analysts infer that the likelihood of another 25 basis point cut in December has significantly decreased. This change in expectation has dealt a major blow to market sentiment, further intensifying the downtrend.

This series of events clearly demonstrates the sensitivity of the financial marketplace to policy expectations and how it reacts based on these expectations. Investors and market participants need to follow not only the policies themselves but also the attitudes of policymakers and potential future directions to better anticipate market trends.