#加密市场回调 When the policy tide recedes, the investment logic lacking real support will be fully exposed; when major decisions are announced, the market's true attitude can no longer be concealed.

In the early hours of today, the Federal Reserve officially announced a 25 basis point reduction in the benchmark interest rate, lowering the rate range to between 3.75% and 4%, while also confirming that it will end the balance sheet reduction policy in December.

On the surface, it appears to be a positive signal for releasing liquidity; however, there are evident divisions within the Federal Reserve – two officials opposed this decision, with one believing that the rate cut is insufficient, while the other completely opposes the rate cut measures. This internal inconsistency precisely reveals the uncertainty of the current economic outlook.

Why did the market experience a noticeable decline despite the relatively good performance of economic data?

First of all, this is a typical "over-digestion of market expectations" phenomenon. Investors began to bet on interest rate cuts as early as a month ago, and the prices of related assets have already reacted in advance. When the policy is finally implemented, it has actually turned into a classic performance of "buying the expectation, selling the fact."

Secondly, the internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are actually an important risk signal. The differing voices among decision-makers indicate that the economic situation may be more complex than what the surface data suggests. Large financial institutions are keenly picking up on this and are choosing to exit early.

More importantly, the Federal Reserve has made it clear that "inflation remains high," which suggests that there may be limited room for future interest rate cuts. This is undoubtedly a wake-up call for market participants hoping for large-scale easing policies.

What does this mean for digital asset investors?

In the short term, the improvement in liquidity can indeed provide some support for the digital asset market, preventing a collapse situation.

However, in an environment where economic fundamentals are unstable, all high-risk asset classes find it difficult to establish a sustained upward trend. The prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum may continue to exhibit high volatility; meanwhile, small-cap tokens face even greater risks, and investors may suffer significant losses if they are not careful.

In the face of the current situation, a wise investment strategy is:

Avoid chasing the rise, especially in the short-term rebound after major news is announced, as this is often a market trap.

Maintain a moderate cash reserve and wait for investment opportunities that arise during market panic.

Closely monitor the Federal Reserve's subsequent policy direction and maintain flexibility in the investment portfolio to respond to potential policy shifts.

The market environment is constantly changing, but the fundamental logic of investment remains the same—one must grasp the rhythm amid volatility. The key lies in understanding the intrinsic relationship between interest rate cycles and asset prices, which allows for more accurate judgment of market turning points.