On October 30, 2024, at 2 a.m. (Beijing time), the results of the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting will be announced, followed by a press conference with Powell. This crucial meeting will not only determine the direction of U.S. monetary policy but will also have a significant impact on Bitcoin prices, possibly deciding whether it will break through the new high of $120,000 or fall below the support level of $100,000.

Currently, there are three factions within the Federal Reserve engaging in intense debate:

The radical rate cut faction, represented by Board Member Milan, advocates for a 50 basis point rate cut in October and two more cuts within the year, warning that failure to take aggressive action could lead to a severe economic recession. If this stance prevails, market liquidity will significantly increase, potentially enabling Bit to smoothly break through the $120,000 mark.

The moderates led by Powell emphasize the importance of balancing employment and inflation, tending to lower interest rates by only 25 basis points at a time, strictly based on economic data for policy-making. This position currently holds the majority in the committee and is generally regarded by the market as the most likely outcome. If executed along this path, the crypto market may experience a brief rise followed by a correction, and investors need to be wary of the risk of being stuck at high levels.

There are also hawkish members represented by Vice Chairman Jefferson who believe that inflation has not yet fully returned to the 2% target, and that prematurely cutting interest rates could re-stimulate price increases. Some committee members even stated that interest rate cuts should be paused to observe the effects of the September rate cut. If this viewpoint gains traction, Bitcoin is likely to experience a significant fall, putting bullish investors under severe pressure.

The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and this expectation has already been reflected in prices to some extent. If it meets expectations, the low interest rate environment will continue to support risk assets, and the cryptocurrency market, including Bit, is expected to attract funding; however, if the Federal Reserve unexpectedly decides to pause the rate cuts, the crypto market may experience significant volatility. Reflecting on last year's aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve that led to a sharp decline in Bit prices and caused many investors to be liquidated still leaves market participants feeling apprehensive.

In the face of potentially significant fluctuations tonight, investors should avoid blindly following trends and are advised to adopt a gradual accumulation strategy, strictly controlling position ratios and retaining sufficient capital strength to respond to market changes. Whether it is a festive moment for Bitcoin breaking through $120,000 or facing the market test of a substantial price correction, maintaining rationality is essential for achieving success in long-term investments.