Analysis: The whale group performed steadily during this period, and an 80% fall in the bear market may no longer occur.

On October 17, on-chain analyst Murphy released data, stating that to date, wallets holding at least 100 BTC and above account for a total of 12.17 million BTC, representing 61% of the total circulating supply. The amount held by whales at the peak of the 2021 bull run is comparable to the current situation, while the peak during the 2017 bull run was around 10 million BTC. In this cycle, many old OGs have handed their chips over to new institutions, resulting in a shift in market participation structure. However, whether the sentiment of whales remains persistently optimistic or fearful and anxious will still determine the transition between BTC's bull and bear cycles. From 2017 to 2018, after BTC's price reached $19,587, it began to pull back, at which point whales realized daily losses of around $1 billion. Continuous, large-scale, and cost-agnostic dumping left the market with no breathing room, leading to a bear market that lasted for a year with an 80% drop. From 2021 to 2022, the scale of daily realized losses reached a new magnitude. On May 19, whales realized daily losses of $3 billion, and during the Luna crash, there was a terrifying $4 billion loss. The previous cycle saw consecutive daily realized losses exceeding $2 billion, which essentially marked the end of the bull market cycle. In this cycle, on August 5, 2024, there was a single-day realized loss of $2 billion, the most severe panic selling so far in this cycle. In February and April 2025, due to Trump's trade war restart, there were single-day losses of $1.1 billion and $800 million, far less than in August 2024. Recently, in the 1011 big dump, BTC whales showed unusual calmness and composure, with realized losses of only $400 million on that day. The mentality and behavior of whales have become steadier, and the previous '80% drop lasting for a year' bear market may no longer occur.