In the financial markets, data is often viewed as a compass that guides direction. However, we should not be misled by the fluctuations of a single day's data. Tonight at 20:30, the U.S. will release the core PCE data for August, which is regarded by the Fed as a key inflation indicator and is closely followed. Expectations indicate that the year-on-year rate may remain at 2.9%, while the month-on-month rate may slightly decrease from 0.3% to 0.2%.

Josh Hirt, an economist at Vanguard Group, pointed out that despite the improving trend in inflation data, a 2.9% annual rate remains a concern that policymakers cannot ignore. He particularly emphasized that the possible slowdown in this month's rate may be due to the cooling of prices for certain goods, such as the easing of price pressures for durable goods like cars and furniture. However, Hirt warned that the potential risk factor of tariffs still exists, which could drive prices higher in the long run.

We need to maintain a cautious attitude towards the upcoming data. A slowdown in monthly data does not necessarily mean a fundamental shift in the trend. Since the beginning of this year, overall commodity prices have still shown an upward trend, and inflation in the service industry has remained persistently high.

Although the Fed may choose to maintain the status quo at present, market participants should not let their guard down too early. It is only after seeing several months of weak data that the expectations for interest rate hikes may be genuinely shaken. Conversely, even a single rebound in data could break the expectations for rate cuts.

For participants in the cryptocurrency market, it is particularly important to closely follow the fluctuations of traditional financial markets. Changes in the US dollar exchange rate and US Treasury yields directly affect the liquidity of crypto assets. To grasp market trends promptly after data releases, it is essential to have a deep understanding of the macroeconomic situation.

When interpreting economic data, we need to step outside the framework of single data points and comprehensively consider the long-term impact of various factors on the market. Only in this way can we make informed decisions in the complex and ever-changing financial environment.