$21 billion options expire today,

Bitcoin and Ethereum face their biggest test of the year!

The expiration date of massive options coincides with macro uncertainty, placing the cryptocurrency market at the crossroads of a volatility storm.

At 08:00 UTC on September 27 (4:00 PM Beijing time), the cryptocurrency market faces one of its most important tests of the year—$21 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options expire on the Deribit exchange.

This is the largest quarter-end expiration event of the third quarter, far exceeding the $4.3 billion options that expired last week. Traders are on high alert, preparing for potential volatility.

01 Unprecedented scale: $21 billion in options looming, market nerves are tense.
Data shows that the nominal total value of the expiring options reaches as high as 21.097 billion USD, with Bitcoin options dominating, valued at 16 billion USD, involving 146,224 open contracts.

The scale of Ethereum options is equally astonishing, with a notional value of $5.08 billion and an open interest of up to 1.28 million contracts. This scale makes it one of the largest option expiration events of 2025 so far.

The data from the options market reveals a divergence in investor sentiment: the put-call ratio (PCR) for Bitcoin is 0.71, indicating that call options are more popular; while the PCR for Ethereum is 0.86, showing that the market is more cautious about its prospects.

02 What does the maximum pain point of $111,000 for Bitcoin mean?

The options market has a key concept - the "maximum pain point," which is the price level at which the majority of option holders will suffer the greatest financial loss.

For Bitcoin, this level is $111,000, significantly higher than the current price of approximately $109,526. This means that as the expiration time approaches, traders may attempt to push the spot price closer to this level to minimize losses.

The maximum pain point for Ethereum is set at $3,800, which is quite close to the current price of $3,963. This proximity increases market uncertainty, and any price fluctuations could trigger a chain reaction.

03 Ethereum's Fragile Moment: Technical Breakdown and Market Sentiment Shift

Analysts have expressed particular concern about Ethereum. They pointed out that after Ethereum's price fell below the psychological barrier of $4,000, it has breached multiple key technical indicators, leading to a significant shift in market sentiment.

"The premium of put options significantly exceeds that of call options, indicating a sharp increase in the market's expectation of downside risks." Analysts warn that if Ethereum cannot break through the $4,000 mark again, the options market may face a repricing scenario for a bear market.

What is even more concerning is that market maker positions are now entering the "gamma amplification zone," where price fluctuations may accelerate due to hedging fund flows. Some market makers have begun purchasing put options for protection, reflecting concerns over a deep correction.

04 Bitcoin Relative Stability: Balance of Power in the Consolidation Range

In contrast, the Bitcoin market shows stronger resilience. Despite facing substantial options expirations, Bitcoin appears to be trading within a more consolidated range, with volatility expectations lower than those of Ethereum.

The put-call ratio for Bitcoin options is relatively low (0.71), indicating that market participants still tend to be bullish on the future market. The maximum pain point is above the current price level, which also provides some support for the market.

However, analysts also remind that Bitcoin is not completely immune to market fluctuations. The expiration size of $21 billion in options is enough to affect the short-term price movements of any asset class.

05 Uncertainty in the Macroeconomic Environment: The Impact of Interest Rate Cuts and Changes in Liquidity

The expiration of this huge options is coinciding with a period of increasing macroeconomic uncertainty. Central banks around the world are signaling interest rate cuts, and global liquidity conditions are changing, which adds complexity to the options market.

Traders are faced with a dilemma: on one hand, they need to hedge against short-term risks, while on the other hand, they are reluctant to miss out on a potential rebound in the fourth quarter. Many investors have already begun to place bullish bets on the fourth quarter, anticipating a new growth momentum by the end of the year.

Analysts point out: "Although currently maintaining a cautious attitude, many investors have begun to place bullish bets on the fourth quarter, expecting a new growth momentum by the end of the year."


After the expiration of options, the market usually experiences a period of increased volatility, followed by a gradual stabilization. Traders will closely watch whether Bitcoin can hold the support range of $107,000-$108,000, and whether Ethereum will regain the critical level of $4,000.

The $21 billion options expiration event is likely to set the tone for the cryptocurrency market as it enters the final phase of 2025. Whether it breaks upward or stagnates, the market will provide a clear answer in the coming days.

As an experienced trader said: "The expiration date of options is not the end, but the beginning of a new chapter. The real opportunity lies in how to respond to the new market landscape formed after expiration." #BTC走势分析# #成长值抽奖赢iPhone17和周边#