#美国实施新一轮关税措施# Recently, the U.S. stock market has declined for three consecutive trading days, which has led to emotional Fluctuation in the Crypto Assets market. Although the fall has been relatively limited, the underlying reasons are worth following.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell made remarks on Tuesday, stating that "stock price valuations are too high," and this brief comment was enough to send the market into a panic. Then on Wednesday, the U.S. August new home sales data came in unexpectedly strong, although this is just a tertiary economic indicator, it became a catalyst for the market's decline. On Thursday, after the data showing initial jobless claims fell to the lowest level this year was released, the market declined again.

It is worth noting that the market performance on Wednesday and Thursday exhibited a clear characteristic: positive economic data led to a market fall. This indicates that the market sentiment has shifted to a "good news is bad news" mode, as strong economic data may impact the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut process.

Today, the market focus will shift to the release of the U.S. August core PCE price index at 20:30 Beijing time. Economists expect the year-on-year growth rate to remain at 2.9%, while the month-on-month growth is expected to decrease from 0.30% to 0.20%. Although the public is more familiar with the CPI, the Federal Reserve actually places more importance on the PCE index, as it covers a wider range and has a more scientifically distributed weighting, allowing it to more accurately reflect price changes in U.S. household consumption. It can be said that the CPI is like an "instant snapshot" of the economy, while the PCE provides a more comprehensive "panoramic scan."

Due to the release of CPI and PPI data in the middle of the month, it is usually possible to infer the PCE data at the end of the month, so this indicator rarely deviates from market expectations. However, there is some difficulty in interpreting this data: the market may focus on the positive aspect of the month-on-month increase decline, or it may focus on the negative aspect of the year-on-year increase still being well above the 2% inflation target. If the market focuses on the former, selling pressure may ease; if it focuses on the latter, combined with other economic indicators this week, it will further weaken the market's expectations for a Fed rate cut. From past experience, the market tends to pay more attention to the more intuitive year-on-year data.

Last night, the probability of the Federal Reserve pausing interest rate cuts in October rose from 10% to about 15%. From a technical analysis perspective, this probability could very well jump further to 50% or even above 60%, corresponding to the potential adjustment range the market might face.

The current fragility of the market mainly stems from the previous excessive rise built on the expectation of "early interest rate cuts," and after the first interest rate cut policy was implemented, the market is undergoing a process of rational regression.

Although the market adjustment seems inevitable, it may just be a temporary phenomenon. In terms of investment strategy, the dollar-cost averaging plan for SOL around 175 can continue, while maintaining the dollar-cost averaging rhythm for LINK. If BTC can pull back to five digits, it will also be a good opportunity to start a new round of dollar-cost averaging. $BTC $ETH $XRP