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Recently, the statements of well-known gold advocate Peter Schiff have sparked widespread discussion in the crypto world. He pointed out that Bitcoin, priced in gold, has fallen 20% from its peak, suggesting that Bitcoin may have entered a Bear Market. However, is this method of comparison appropriate?
In fact, measuring the value of Bitcoin in terms of gold may not be appropriate. The strong rise in gold this year is mainly due to the large-scale purchases by global central banks, and it is expected that the amount of gold purchased by central banks will reach a new high by 2025. In contrast, Bitcoin has greater short-term volatility, making such a direct comparison inevitably unfair.
More importantly, we should focus on whether the fundamentals of Bitcoin have changed. In fact, institutional investors are still continuously dollar-cost averaging, and large asset management companies like BlackRock have maintained stable ETF positions. Notably, the number of active addresses on the chain has actually increased by 15%, which could be a positive sign.
For the current market, investors can consider the following strategies:
1. Pay attention to the technical aspects: closely monitor the key support levels on the Bitcoin weekly chart, such as the previous low of $107,000. As long as it does not fall below these key levels, there is no need to panic excessively.
2. Adopt a dollar-cost averaging strategy: Consider increasing your position by a certain amount every time the price falls by 10%, to avoid investing all your funds at once.
3. Grasp the market rhythm: The current debate may instead strengthen the narrative of Bitcoin as an anti-inflation tool. Investors can pay attention to the upcoming US CPI data, which may become the next market focus.
It is worth noting that real bull and bear market signals are often hidden in overlooked data. For example, changes in miner holdings, the influx rate of stablecoins, and even the social media activity patterns of certain well-known individuals may provide valuable market insights.
Overall, when assessing the Bitcoin market, we need to consider various factors comprehensively, rather than solely relying on a single price comparison. Long-term trends and fundamental analysis are crucial for understanding the dynamics of the crypto assets market.