The adjustment of the monetary policy by the Central Bank of the United States has always been the focus of global economic attention. Recently, the market's expectation that the Fed may implement interest rate cuts in September 2025 has become increasingly strong. This expectation mainly stems from the weak performance of U.S. economic data.

The latest economic indicators released for August show signs of cooling in the U.S. job market. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, marking a nearly four-year high, while the private sector added only 54,000 jobs, far below market expectations. At the same time, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for August fell by 0.1% month-on-month, with the year-on-year increase slowing to 2.6%. These data provide ample reason for the Fed to consider cutting interest rates.

According to the "Fed Watch" tool from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), the market widely believes that there is a high possibility of a rate cut in September, with a 93% probability of a 25 basis point cut and a 7% probability of a 50 basis point cut.

Interest rate cuts, as an important monetary policy tool, have multifaceted effects. They can increase market liquidity and lower the cost of financing in dollars, thereby stimulating economic activity. However, this policy may also bring about a series of global impacts. In the short term, it could inject a boost into the global economy, but it may also trigger fluctuations in financial markets, affect international capital flows, and even lead some economies to face the risk of trade imbalances.

Overall, the Fed's interest rate cut decision will affect the global economy, and its impact will extend far beyond the United States. Policymakers and investors in various countries need to closely follow this trend and prepare for appropriate responses.