The stock market continued its Sideways fluctuation today, showing a small Bullish line Doji pattern with reduced volume. The market seems to be trapped in a deadlock, unwilling to fall and afraid to pump. How much longer will the consolidation around the 3800 point level last? I'm afraid no one can provide a definitive answer to this question.

However, there is one thing that investors should keep in mind: the longer the market stays sideways, the greater the potential for a future breakout. If the market chooses to break down tomorrow, it could indeed evolve into the legendary 'Black Thursday'; on the contrary, if it breaks up, we may very well see a bullish line or even a stronger pump.

From a personal perspective, the probability of a rise after a long sideways movement is quite high. Even if the market chooses to move down in the short term, it may be the main funds creating better buying opportunities for subsequent rises. Even if the index dips near the 30-day moving average, a rapid rebound and recovery of lost ground is expected. In the current market environment, we seem to be in a strongly deterministic bull market cycle, and the possibility of a deep correction in the index is relatively small.

In the short term, there may be support and a rebound near the downward 30-day moving average, while around 3888 points there may be resistance and a retreat. If a trend reversal really occurs tomorrow, it is very likely to just shift from a narrow range of fluctuations to a wide range of fluctuations, and the overall trend of sideways movement is still difficult to change.

Although, according to common logic, if a 'Black Thursday'-style drop really occurs tomorrow, the index may fall below the 30-day moving average and even retreat to the trend support line formed by the low point connection. However, in a bull market, relying solely on conventional logic for judgment often leads to misguidance. One of the characteristics of a bull market is that there often appear movements contrary to human expectations.

In summary, I believe that the current sideways consolidation is still expected to eventually break upwards. As the ancient saying goes, the longer the market remains sideways, the stronger the breakout may be. While investors pay attention to short-term fluctuations, they should also remain rational and prepare for a long-term layout.