Recently, with the downward revision of non-farm employment data, concerns about economic recession have once again intensified. Some believe that if the economy does indeed fall into recession, the Fed must bear primary responsibility, as its erratic decision-making is seen as a significant contributing factor.

Looking back at the past few years, the Fed's policy stance has changed frequently. In May 2021, when the inflation rate reached 5%, the Fed still insisted that inflation was temporary and continued to implement quantitative easing policies. This decision led to the inflation rate soaring to 9% subsequently. However, when the inflation rate dropped to 3% in September 2025, the Fed refused to cut interest rates on the grounds of preventing an inflation rebound, and this contradictory attitude sparked dissatisfaction in the market.

The Fed's decisions are difficult to escape the influence of political factors. The current chair is well aware that if inflation rebounds during their term, they may face criticism; however, if not lowering interest rates leads to an economic downturn and rising unemployment, they will face even greater political pressure. After all, compared to inflation, the issue of unemployment is more likely to trigger sensitive social nerves.

Currently, the Fed's policy-making seems to be influenced by partisan struggles, which may disrupt its normal decision-making process. As the risk of economic recession gradually increases, the Fed still insists on not lowering interest rates, which may ultimately lead to the general public facing the dual blow of persistently high inflation and rising unemployment rates.

In the face of the current complex economic situation, the market is closely monitoring the future policy direction of the Fed. Decision-makers need to find a balance between controlling inflation and maintaining economic growth to avoid a potential economic recession. At the same time, they must also be vigilant about the improper influence of political factors on monetary policy to ensure the independence and effectiveness of their decisions.