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Latest data shows that the U.S. job market is under greater pressure than expected. According to the government's latest report, in the year ending March this year, the U.S. may have added 911,000 fewer jobs than previously estimated. This data revision suggests that signs of a slowdown in job growth had already emerged before changes in trade policy.
Experts expect that the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics may revise the employment level downward by 400,000 to 1 million jobs for the period from April 2024 to March 2025. It is worth noting that the employment data for the period from April 2023 to March 2024 has already been revised down by 598,000 jobs.
The latest benchmark revision comes in the wake of recent signs of weakness in the job market. Job growth in August was nearly stagnant, and in June, there was a decrease in jobs for the first time in nearly four and a half years. Multiple factors have contributed to this trend, including uncertainty in trade policies, the tightening of immigration policies affecting labor supply, and companies' shifts towards artificial intelligence and automation technology suppressing demand for human labor.
Despite the downward revision of employment data, economists believe that the impact on monetary policy may be limited. The Federal Reserve is expected to resume its rate-cutting process next Wednesday, having paused its easing cycle in January due to uncertainties arising from tariff policies.
These data revisions and changes in the labor market reflect that the U.S. economy is undergoing structural adjustments. Policymakers, businesses, and workers all need to adapt to this new situation to maintain the long-term healthy development of the economy. In the future, balancing technological advancements, trade policies, and employment rise will become key challenges.