The bull run is knocking at the door: This top 20 altcoin is about to break its peak.

SUI is emerging as one of the most closely followed altcoins in 2025. After a slow start, this coin suddenly surged past the 5 USD mark, before adjusting back to the 3 USD zone. This price movement not only reflects strong growth potential but also reveals the challenges that the project must face on its path to establishing a sustainable position in the crypto market.

The big question for investors today is: does SUI have enough momentum to maintain its upward trend, overcome supply pressure, and rise to the top tier of assets? Recent volatility has shown a high sensitivity to macro factors, market sentiment, and on-chain data – all of which will determine whether SUI can transition from a short-term increase to a sustainable growth trend in the long term.

Unlocking Supply – A Critical "Test" for SUI Price

One of the most important factors directly affecting the price of SUI is the monthly token unlock schedule. Each month, millions of SUI tokens are released and put into circulation, creating a potential increase in supply that does not always come with corresponding demand from the market.

This phenomenon creates potential selling pressure: when new supply floods the market but liquidity is not sufficient or demand has not increased, investors may sell to take profits, leading to sharp short-term price drops. A typical example is in August 2025, right after the token unlock schedule was executed, SUI witnessed a significant drop, highlighting the direct relationship between new supply and price volatility.

For investors, this mechanism is both an opportunity and a risk – a "double-edged sword:"

• Positive aspect: The token unlock schedule is announced in advance and is predictable, allowing the market to price the token according to long-term expectations. Investors can plan their trades or implement hedging strategies to mitigate dilution risks.
• Negative aspect: If on-chain demand and liquidity do not keep pace with the rate of issuance, SUI may face prolonged selling pressure, causing prices to easily fall into a persistent downtrend. In extreme cases, supply dilution could also undermine investor confidence, affecting market stability.

In other words, the long-term success of SUI is not only based on network development but also depends on the ability to balance supply and demand. The speed of ecosystem expansion, the number of new users joining, as well as the level of adoption of DeFi and NFT applications on the platform will serve as a natural "shield" against dilution risk.

Additionally, monitoring the ratio of tokens held long-term compared to tokens sold immediately upon unlocking can be an important indicator of market sentiment and the strength of actual demand. If the majority of new tokens are held rather than sold, downward pressure may significantly decrease, opening opportunities for SUI to maintain a long-term upward trend.

Source: tokenomist## DeFi dynamics and ecosystem expansion

Despite facing pressure from monthly supply, the Sui ecosystem continues to maintain impressive growth in the decentralized finance (DeFi) space. This is largely thanks to its relentless scalability through the integration of key DeFi products.

Sui has connected with Bitcoin, creating a liquidity bridge between networks, while also developing decentralized exchanges (DEX), providing opportunities for fast and flexible token trading. In addition, the ecosystem has launched innovative financial products such as lending, staking, and yield farming protocols, helping to attract new users and maintain dynamism in the network.

The continuous influx of both users and developers has helped Sui move beyond its role as merely a speculative asset, getting closer to becoming a practical blockchain platform for DeFi applications. This not only reinforces the network's value but also drives long-term acceptance from the crypto market.

However, Sui still has to compete with heavyweight competitors that are dominating the DeFi space. Solana leads in trading volume, benefiting from expectations about ETFs and interest from institutional investors. Meanwhile, Ethereum maintains its position as a "giant" with a diverse and extensive ecosystem, dominating a large portion of liquidity and the number of deployed projects.

To bridge this gap and enhance competitiveness, Sui needs to implement a comprehensive strategy. Attracting more developers will help increase the number of projects, improve quality, and diversify products on the network. Meanwhile, Sui needs to promote practical integration, linking with payment applications, NFTs, gaming, and decentralized financial services. Creating attractive use cases will provide practical experiences, retain users for the long term, and enhance features for DeFi applications on the platform.

If Sui succeeds in balancing ecosystem growth, liquidity, and user demand, this platform has the potential to become a notable DeFi hub in the coming years, not just a speculative token but also a platform supporting innovative financial applications.

Source: Defillama## Potential catalysts from ETFs and organizations

One of the factors that can completely change the price landscape of SUI is the participation of large financial institutions. In the context of investors seeking reliable crypto assets, the acceptance of SUI by organizations can provide a stable and sustainable demand, thereby boosting the price of the token.

Currently, the market is buzzing with rumors about some potential layer 1 altcoins applying for ETFs. This is a positive signal, as crypto ETFs are often seen as tools to broaden market access for institutional investors, while also providing a strong demand catalyst in the short term. If SUI makes it to the ETF list, the token may witness a large buying wave, especially at sensitive times when token unlock pressure is occurring.

Analysts are also closely following the January 2026 deadline for several ETF registration applications. A favorable decision from regulators would not only help boost the confidence of individual and institutional investors but could also ignite a new price surge, especially for altcoins with dynamic ecosystems and strong user bases like SUI.

During this period, investors should pay attention to how SUI balances the unlocking supply pressure and the increasing on-chain demand. The effective coordination between real-world adoption on the network and the demand from institutions will be a key factor determining the short-term and medium-term price direction of SUI.

What makes Sui different?

Unlike many other blockchains in the market, Sui has a unique network architecture designed for speed, scalability, and customization. These features not only create a distinct competitive advantage but also shape the role of SUI in the current blockchain ecosystem.

In terms of speed and scalability, Sui can handle a large volume of transactions simultaneously with low latency, enabling users and developers to deploy large-scale applications without being constrained by bottlenecks. Additionally, modular scalability allows the network to flexibly adapt to growing demands, from small projects to large-scale DeFi products, providing a smooth and stable experience for the community.

Customizability is another strength of Sui. This platform supports the creation of (sub-environments) tailored for each type of application, from gaming, payments to asset tokenization. This not only enhances efficiency and user experience but also helps projects quickly deploy new products without disrupting the entire network.

Thanks to its flexible architecture, Sui has become a potential destination for innovative DeFi projects. Many protocols are experimenting with unique liquidity models on Sui, ranging from lending and borrowing to financial derivative products. If this trend continues, SUI has every chance of becoming a hub for innovative financial products, serving as the foundation for a diverse DeFi ecosystem in the coming years.

Overall, superior speed, strong scalability, and high customizability are the factors that set Sui apart from traditional blockchains. This also provides a solid foundation for SUI to become the preferred choice for practical and innovative blockchain applications.

Risks investors cannot overlook

Although SUI shows impressive growth potential, investors still need to be clearly aware of the fundamental and hidden risks before deciding to allocate capital.

One of the notable risks is the continuous pressure of token unlocks. Every month, millions of SUI tokens are released according to the unlock schedule. If market demand does not increase in time, the selling pressure from investors holding tokens may lead to value dilution, causing short-term declines or strong fluctuations. This situation may also affect the long-term confidence of investors, especially during periods of market volatility.

In addition, SUI faces fierce competition from established blockchains such as Solana and Ethereum. These two platforms continue to dominate the DeFi and NFT space thanks to their extensive ecosystems, abundant liquidity, and stable user base. To avoid being left behind, Sui needs to continuously strive to attract developers, enhance real-world application integration, and maintain the dynamism of the network.

Legal and regulatory risks are also factors to consider. In the US and many other countries, the legal framework for cryptocurrency is still unclear. Unfavorable legal decisions may restrict institutional capital flow, affect DeFi projects on Sui, and reduce access to the international market.

Limited liquidity also creates potential risks. Compared to major blockchains, the trading volume and liquidity of SUI remain modest. In times of high volatility, tokens are prone to being sold off with large margins, causing prices to fluctuate more and increasing risks for short-term investors.

In general, investors need to carefully weigh the potential for growth against existing risks. Analyzing the tokenomics structure, the speed of ecosystem expansion, practical applicability, and the legal environment will help accurately assess the level of risk, thereby making informed investment decisions and developing effective risk management strategies.

Price Prediction for SUI 2025–2026

In the next 12–18 months, the price of SUI may develop according to three main scenarios, depending on the level of DeFi adoption, token unlock pressure, and the participation of financial institutions.

1. Bullish scenario

In this scenario, the ETF is approved, the DeFi ecosystem is developing rapidly, on-chain demand is increasing, and liquidity is improving. Under the influence of institutional capital flows along with buying pressure from individual investors, SUI has the potential to return to the old peak of around 5 USD and even establish a new record price. This scenario reflects the maximization of positive catalysts, from recognition by institutions to actual demand from users.

2. Basic scenario

In this scenario, the network is applied stably but supply pressure remains present, liquidity is increasing but slowly. The price of SUI is expected to fluctuate within a range of 3–5 USD, with periodic increases and adjustments. This is a reasonable scenario, reflecting the pace of the ecosystem's expansion balanced with dilution pressure but not strong enough to create a leap in price.

3. Discount scenario

In this case, liquidity does not improve, competition from Solana, Ethereum, and other blockchains dominates the market, and on-chain demand is weak. The price of SUI may fall back to the old bottom zone near 2024, under the pressure of sell-offs and a decline in market confidence. This is a warning scenario about dilution risk, competition, and legal instability, emphasizing the need for risk management for investors.

The chart visualizes 3 price scenarios for SUI that converge both opportunities and risks. Opportunities arise from the expanding ecosystem, advanced networking technology, potential for institutional recognition, and practical applicability. Risks include dilution pressure from unlocking tokens, fierce competition, legal instability, and limited liquidity.

Investors should carefully assess the potential for innovation and the real value of the network compared to existing barriers. At the same time, it is necessary to follow catalysts such as ETFs, the rate of DeFi adoption, and on-chain cash flow, as these are the factors that determine price trends in the next 12–18 months. If SUI maintains its growth momentum and receives support from organizations, the token could become an altcoin star in the next bull run cycle. Conversely, if demand is not sustainable, SUI will have difficulty maintaining its position in the market.

In the context of Bitcoin's declining dominance and capital flows starting to seek altcoins, SUI is emerging as one of the attractive options. The current correction may just be a temporary setback, paving the way for a new and long-term growth cycle.

*Hedging strategy (is a method in finance and investment aimed at minimizing or protecting investors from the risk of price volatility of assets. Instead of trying to accurately predict the market, hedging helps limit losses if the market moves against expectations.

Lilly