Big turbulence in the crypto world! BTC is being dumped by ancient OGs in exchange for ETH, ETF funds are fleeing showing weakness, ETH breaks its ATH repeatedly but can't drive altcoins? The FOMO from the interest rate cut in September is coming, ignoring these key points could lead to losses!

The current market is like "ice and fire"—BTC is weakened by OG dumping + ETF outflows, while ETH is supported by OG increasing positions + its ecosystem breaking new highs. Altcoins, on the other hand, are collectively "playing dead." Moreover, with the September interest rate cut confirmed, WLFI going live, and OKB distributing 100 million USD... these are all major events that can impact wallets. If you don't keep a close eye on these key points, you'll either miss out or get cut!
1. First, let's analyze the "tragic situation" of BTC: ancient OG dumping + ETF escape, is the weakness just a short-term adjustment?
Don't rush to buy the dip on BTC! Its recent weakness is not 'coincidental'; it has been dumped by OGs and institutions with real money. These two details are crucial to note:
1. Ancient OG dumped 3.45 billion BTC for ETH: it’s not about escaping the peak, it’s about "complete transference".
The OG (known as 'Old Black' in the crypto world) who held 5000 BTC back in 2016 did something that shook the crypto world last week - he dumped 3000 BTC into the exchange in three transactions, converting it all to ETH. Now he has skyrocketed his ETH holdings to 69,000 (about 340 million U) and opened a long position of 40,000 ETH. What's even more ruthless is that he simultaneously withdrew 2000 BTC from Grayscale's BTC Trust, effectively slashing his 'BTC position' by 80%.
My friend from the institution, Old Wu, understood as soon as he saw the transaction records: "Old Hei, this OG, has held BTC for 8 years without moving it, and now suddenly dumps so much to exchange for ETH, it's not that he's bearish on BTC, it's that he believes ETH can surpass BTC. He mentioned back in 2021 that 'once the ETH ecosystem is established, it will overtake', and now he's betting 3.45 billion U. Recently, three other OGs have also dumped a total of 2000 BTC for ETH, totaling 4.6 billion U. This wave of asset swapping has directly increased the circulating supply of BTC by 5000 coins, how can it not be weak?"
Old Zhang from the fan group is worried after getting into BTC at $115,000: "I originally wanted to sell at $120,000, but seeing OG dumping, I'm afraid it will keep falling. Should I cut losses and switch to ETH?" Old Wu advised him: "There will definitely be short-term adjustments, but the interest rate cut in September is coming. BTC won't drop much more; $110,000 is a strong support level. If you cut losses, you might miss out. It's better to keep 50% and use the rest to buy some ETH for hedging."
2. BTC ETF has seen net outflows for 3 consecutive days: institutions are "rebalancing their portfolios", not pulling out investments.
Recently, the fund flow of the BTC ETF looks poor —— data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) shows that the BTC ETF has seen net outflows for three consecutive days, totaling 180 million U, with BlackRock's BTC ETF reducing by 50 million U yesterday. But don't panic, institutions are not "withdrawing funds", they are "shifting to ETH" —— during the same period, the ETH ETF saw net inflows of 230 million U, BlackRock's ETH ETF increased positions by 120 million U, and Grayscale's ETH trust holdings increased by 8000 coins.
Old Wu flipped through the institutional position report and said: "Institutions are now 'reducing BTC and increasing ETH'. It's not that they are pessimistic about the crypto world, but they are more optimistic about ETH. In 2021, institutions held a lot of BTC, but now the ETH ecosystem has developed, with DeFi locked at 210 billion and NFT daily active users at 1.2 million, which has more potential than BTC, so they will definitely switch. Once the FOMO comes after the interest rate cut in September, BTC will rise again, and below 110,000 dollars is a good buying opportunity."
2. ETH breaks ATH repeatedly but can't drive altcoins? Don't worry, these 3 reasons hide the "entry signals".
ETH has soared to 5020 dollars, yet top altcoins like LINK, UNI, ENA, and ETHFI are just "lying flat." Some people are criticizing that "the altcoin season is over," but in fact, it’s not over; they are waiting for signals. You must understand these 3 reasons:
1. The market is waiting for ETH to "stabilize at 5000 dollars": it hasn't broken key levels, and funds are hesitant to move into altcoins.
ETH surged to $5020 last night but couldn't hold and fell back to $4980, which is a "false breakout" - the main force deliberately created "bull top panic" to wash away the indecisive retail investors. The current market consensus is: only if ETH holds above $5000 and maintains that for 24 hours without falling, will funds flow from ETH to altcoins, because everyone is afraid of "ETH still rising, missing out on altcoins."
Technical analyst Old Zheng said, staring at the ETH K-line: "5000 dollars is the 'psychological barrier' for ETH. It didn't break in 2021, and now it's touching it for the first time, so there will definitely be some dumping. You see, when BTC broke 60,000 dollars in 2021, it also had a 3-day dump, and only then did it drive the altcoins up. ETH is just waiting for the signal of 'stably standing above 5000 dollars'. Once it stands firm, leading altcoins like LINK and UNI will catch up, at least by 10%-15%."
In the fan group, A Kai invested 4800 dollars in ETH and hasn't sold yet: "I will reduce my position once ETH stabilizes at 5000 dollars, and then I'll buy LINK - LINK is now 18 dollars, which is 40% lower than its peak in 2021. Once ETH stabilizes, it will definitely rise, and I can make a profit then."
2. Funding in "sifting for quality altcoins": junk coins are being discarded, while the leaders are waiting for the wind.
Not all altcoins are "playing dead"; it’s the junk coins that nobody wants. Quality leaders are "gaining momentum"—for example, ETHFI, which, although it recently dropped by 5%, is seeing its TVL rise from 1 billion U to 1.2 billion U; AAVE is even more stable, with DeFi locked at 25 billion U, up 15% from last month. These quality altcoins with ecosystems and funds are not stagnant; they are waiting for the "wind" of ETH.
Recently, Lao Wu has been researching altcoins. He said: "We invested in 3 ETH ecosystem altcoins, ETHFI, AAVE, and UNI. Although they haven’t risen in price yet, their users are still increasing, and developers are still updating the code. This is what we call 'high-quality targets'. Those garbage meme coins with no ecosystem or users, like the recent hot animal coin, saw daily active users drop from 10,000 to 1,000, and the funds have long since fled. You should never touch such coins. The market is currently 'eliminating the false and preserving the true', and only high-quality leaders can rise, while garbage coins will become increasingly miserable."
3. Retail investors are "afraid of missing out on ETH": all eyes are on ETH, and no one dares to touch altcoins.
The current mentality of retail investors is "fear of missing out on ETH"—ETH is reaching new highs every day, some people didn't enter at $4500, bought in at $4800, and are afraid that if they sell ETH to buy altcoins, ETH will continue to rise while altcoins won't, leaving them missing out on both sides. So everyone is holding onto ETH and no one dares to go into altcoins, resulting in altcoins "playing dead."
Old Zhang is like this: "I bought ETH at 4700 dollars, now I've made 280 dollars per coin, but I don't dare to sell. I'm afraid that if I sell and buy LINK, ETH will rise to 5500 dollars, but LINK won't go up, and then I'll lose big. I'll wait until ETH stops rising, then I'll buy altcoins; for now, I'll hold onto ETH steadily."
Three, 8 major events to watch in September: interest rate cut FOMO, WLFI launch, OKB airdrop... Each one affects your wallet!
In the current market, there are major events happening every day. If you don't keep an eye on these in September, you will either miss opportunities or fall into traps, especially these 8, which are all key points:
1. ETH fake breakout at 5020 dollars: Don't panic, holding steady at 5000 dollars is the real deal.
2. WLFI launched: the contract fell below 0.4U, pre-sale players are hedging.
WLFI is about to go live on the spot market, and the contract price has dropped from 0.5U to 0.38U. The reason is simple: early presale players have hedged above 0.4U, fearing a drop once it goes live on the spot market, so they opened short positions in the contracts to hedge the risk. Lao Wu reminds: "Don't chase WLFI on the first day of its spot market launch; presale players have a low cost and may dump, so wait for it to stabilize below 0.3U before entering, it's less risky."
3. AAVE and WLFI are in a dispute over 7% of the chips: AAVE wants to take them, WLFI does not acknowledge it, and it is highly likely that they "don't want to give".
The AAVE community voted to take 7% of the WLFI chips (about 7 million coins), but the WLFI team said "it's fake news, there's no such thing." Lao Wu analyzed: "It's very likely that WLFI doesn't want to give it — 7% of the chips are worth 26 million U, who would easily give that away? There might be future conflicts, even lawsuits, and those holding these two coins should pay attention to the risks and not get affected."
4. XPL contract stabilized at 0.5U: No fluctuation means "risk", don't touch it.
The XPL contract price has remained at 0.5U, neither rising nor falling, appearing stable, but in fact, it has "no liquidity"—the 24-hour trading volume is only 5 million U, down 80% from last week. It's easy to get in, but hard to get out. Old Wu said: "Don't touch coins with no liquidity; even if they rise, you won't be able to sell them and will end up being trapped."
5. OKB retraces, but OK allocates 100 million USD ecological fund: junk meme coins are cooling off, quality projects are set to rise.
OKB recently dropped from 60 USD to 55 USD, but OKX announced it will use 100 million USD to create an ecological fund to support quality projects, avoiding trash meme coins. Old Wu said: "This is a positive for OKB - the 100 million USD will attract quality projects to the OK ecosystem, the value of OKB will rise, and 55 USD is a buying opportunity, it can rise back to 65 USD after the interest rate cut in September."
6. OKX DEX aggregator will start charging today at 6 PM: stablecoins 0.25%, altcoins 0.85%, trading costs have increased.
Starting from 6 PM this afternoon, OKX DEX will charge a 0.25% fee for stablecoin trading and 0.85% for altcoins, which is a 50% increase compared to before. A Kai complained: "Previously, exchanging USDT on OKX DEX would only cost 2U for 1000U, but now it will cost 2.5U, making it more expensive. In the future, I need to compare more exchanges when swapping coins, like Uniswap, which only charges a 0.3% fee, cheaper than OKX."
7. Ondo stock tokenization market is coming: institutional funds are entering, positive for ETH
Ondo is going to implement "stock tokenization", converting stocks of Apple and Microsoft into tokens to be traded on ETH. Lao Wu said: "This is a huge positive — institutions wanting to buy stock tokens will first need to buy ETH, which will drive up ETH's price and attract more institutional funds into the ETH ecosystem, increasing the value of ETH, and 5000 dollars is just the starting point."
8. Arthur Hayes says HYPE has 126 times potential: Don't chase blindly, the risk is greater than the reward.
Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes said HYPE could rise 126 times. Now HYPE has increased from 0.01U to 0.03U, a 2 times increase. But Lao Wu reminds us: "HYPE currently has no ecosystem, no users, and relies solely on celebrity endorsements. A 126 times increase is a 'pie in the sky.' In 2021, many coins were hyped by celebrities and eventually dropped 99%. Don't blindly chase; entering is just picking up the pieces."
4. September Operation Suggestions: Catch the interest rate cut FOMO, be cautious of the October pullback, principal comes first!
What you should do now is not to rush blindly, but to "seize the September FOMO and guard against the October pullback." These three suggestions must be listened to:
1. Before the interest rate cut in September: buy BTC (below $110,000), ETH (below $4,800), quality altcoins (LINK below $18, AAVE below $120)
The interest rate cut in September is confirmed, and there will be a wave of fear of missing out (FOMO) market. Now BTC has dropped to 112,000 dollars, ETH has dropped to 4,980 dollars, and LINK has dropped to 18 dollars, which is a buying opportunity. After entering the market, set stop-loss: reduce positions if BTC breaks 110,000 dollars, reduce positions if ETH breaks 4,800 dollars, reduce positions if LINK breaks 17 dollars, don't hold the position.
Old Zhang plans to buy BTC with 110,000 dollars: "I currently have 50% BTC, with 110,000 dollars I'll buy another 20%. The interest rate cut FOMO has arrived, it can rise to 120,000 dollars, then I'll reduce my position, making 10,000 dollars per coin."
2. After FOMO: Reduce positions by 50%, keep cash to guard against the October pullback.
Interest rate cuts have created FOMO. For instance, if BTC rises to $125,000 and ETH rises to $5,500, be sure to reduce your position by 50% and keep cash on hand—there's a high probability of a pullback in October, and then you can buy the dip for more profits. Lao Wu said: "After the interest rate cut in September 2021, BTC rose by 20%, and in October it fell by 15%. Now history will repeat itself, don’t be greedy, reduce your position after FOMO, and keep cash for the pullback."
3. Don't touch garbage coins: only hold quality leaders (ETH, SOL, LINK, AAVE, ETHFI), don't touch garbage meme coins even if they rise.
The market is now in a phase of "seeking the truth from the false," where garbage meme coins rise quickly but fall even faster. For example, a certain animal coin surged 5 times in 3 days and then dropped 90% in another 3 days, making it feel like free money when you enter. Only invest in high-quality leading coins with ecosystems and funding; even if they drop in the short term, they will rise again in the long term, ensuring the safety of the principal.
Akai's current position is "40% ETH + 20% SOL + 20% LINK + 20% cash". He said, "I don't touch junk coins, these quality coins are stable. FOMO in September can rise, and the retracement in October won't drop much. The principal is safe, and I can still make money, which is better than randomly rushing into junk coins."
BTC is being dumped by OG and ETF is fleeing, showing short-term weakness but will rise in September; ETH has broken ATH continuously but can't drive altcoins, it will explode once it stabilizes at 5000 dollars; FOMO for interest rate cuts in September should be captured, and caution is needed for pullbacks in October... The current market is not about "charging blindly to earn," but rather "seeing the right direction, choosing the right targets, and controlling risks" to make a profit.
Don't be scared by ETH's false breakout, don't be trapped by altcoin's sideways movement, and don't be fooled by KOL's "bullish rhetoric" — follow the institutions and OG's strategies, hold quality leaders, set your stop-loss properly, you can profit in September and avoid pitfalls in October.
#机构以太坊储备破1000万枚#