Bitcoin Halving One Year Anniversary: Market Landscape Subtly Changes

Bitcoin ( BTC ) has been a year since the last Halving, and this cycle presents a completely different trend compared to previous years. Unlike the explosive growth seen after past Halvings, BTC's current increase is relatively moderate, rising only 31%, while the previous cycle saw a dramatic increase of 436% during the same period.

At the same time, long-term holder indicators such as the MVRV ratio show a significant decrease in unrealized profits, indicating that the market is maturing and upward potential is being compressed. These changes suggest that BTC may be entering a new era characterized by gradual growth rather than parabolic rises, driven more by institutions.

Unique Period Development

This BTC cycle of development is significantly different from previous years, which may indicate that the market's reaction to Halving is changing.

In the early cycles (, especially from 2012 to 2016 and from 2016 to 2020 ), BTC often experienced strong rises during this phase. The Halving is usually accompanied by a strong upward momentum and parabolic price movements, mainly due to retail enthusiasm and speculative demand.

However, the current cycle has taken a different path. The price did not accelerate after the Halving, but began to soar in October and December 2024, followed by a consolidation in January 2025 and a pullback in late February.

This early rising behavior is completely different from historical patterns, as past Halvings have typically been a catalyst for significant price increases.

There are many factors that contribute to the change. BTC is no longer just a retail-driven speculative asset; it is increasingly being viewed as a mature financial instrument. The growing institutional participation, along with macroeconomic pressures and changes in market structure, has led to a more cautious and complex market response.

Another obvious sign of this evolution is the weakening intensity of each cycle. As BTC's market value grows, it becomes increasingly difficult to replicate the explosive gains of the early years. For example, during the 2020-2024 cycle, BTC rose by 436% one year after the Halving. In contrast, the gain during the same period in this cycle was only 31%, which is much more moderate.

This shift may signify that BTC is entering a new chapter characterized by reduced volatility and more stable long-term growth. Halving may no longer be the main driving force, as factors such as interest rates, liquidity, and institutional funds are playing a larger role.

It is worth noting that in previous cycles, there have also been consolidation and pullback phases before recovering an upward trend. Although this phase may feel slow or lack stimulation, it may represent a healthy adjustment before the next round of increases.

This cycle may still continue to deviate from historical patterns. It may not experience a dramatic top bubble burst, but rather show a more sustained and structurally solid upward trend, driven more by fundamentals than speculation.

Long-term Holder MVRV Ratio Reveals Mature Market

Long-term holders ( LTH ) market capitalization and MVRV ratio have always been reliable indicators of unrealized profits. It shows the profits that long-term investors have gained before they start to sell. However, over time, this value is decreasing.

During the 2016-2020 cycle, the LTH MVRV ratio peaked at 35.8, indicating substantial unrealized profits and a clear formation of a top. In the 2020-2024 cycle, the peak sharply declined to 12.2, despite BTC price reaching an all-time high at that time.

The highest value of the LTH MVRV ratio so far in this cycle is only 4.35, which is a significant drop. This indicates that long-term holders are obtaining far lower returns compared to previous cycles, despite the substantial increase in BTC prices. This trend is evident: the return multiples in each cycle are decreasing.

The explosive upward space of BTC is being compressed, and the market is maturing.

This is not a coincidence. As the market matures, explosive returns naturally become harder to achieve. The era of extreme, cycle-driven profit multiples may be fading, replaced by more moderate or stable growth.

The continuously growing market size means that exponentially more capital is needed to significantly drive up prices.

However, this does not confirm that the current cycle has peaked. Previous cycles typically include long periods of consolidation or slight pullbacks before reaching new highs.

The role of retail investors is becoming increasingly important, and the accumulation phase may last longer. Therefore, peak profit sell-offs may not be as sudden as in earlier cycles.

However, if the declining trend of the MVRV ratio continues, it may reinforce the view that BTC is transitioning from a frenzy, cyclical surge to a more moderate but structured growth pattern.

The most intense price increases may have already passed, especially for investors who entered the market later in the cycle.