Solana on-chain transaction reality: Market manipulation has become a mainstream trend

Recently, the trading activity within the Solana ecosystem has shown some noteworthy trends. Once upon a time, some tokens with peculiar names could see their market value soar several times over in a short period just based on a celebrity photo. However, the current market seems to be moving towards a more rational direction, with the "bundled bullish" strategy becoming the main means of driving price increases. This change signifies an interesting transformation in the speculative behavior of the cryptocurrency market.

Currently, tokens that can achieve value growth in the market are mainly divided into two categories: one is tokens manipulated through various means, including bundled tokens, early preferential distribution tokens, and tokens deeply controlled by internal trading; the other is tokens that can generate actual returns. This phenomenon reflects a harsh reality: the market is either dominated by manipulation or returns to the traditional capitalist value assessment system.

When "manipulation" becomes a key indicator for judging the price trend of tokens, we must admit that the current on-chain trading cycle may be nearing its end. On the surface, the on-chain ecosystem seems healthier than it actually is, but in fact, some participants are using market manipulation as a tool to artificially inflate the prices of certain tokens.

This phenomenon is not unprecedented. Looking back in history, we can find similar cases, such as the commodity market manipulation incidents from 1985 to 1996. In that case, a trader attempted to maintain the facade of market prosperity by illegally establishing huge long positions, despite the actual health of the market continuing to deteriorate.

Capitalism is often driven by emotions and speculation in the short term, but in the long run, it ultimately brings the truth to light. Currently, the "manipulation gap" on the Solana blockchain is a veil that obscures the truth. When we delve into the intentions of internal trading groups and project parties to control most of the liquid supply, as well as traders using "manipulation" as a competitive advantage, we can glimpse the shadows hidden behind the curtain.

However, this manipulation pattern will eventually collapse. Just like historical cases of commodity market manipulation, as the manipulated positions are liquidated, prices will quickly revert to previous lows. The "manipulation gap" of Solana will also disintegrate in a similar manner, and the true health of the market will ultimately be revealed. History has repeatedly proven that the truth of capitalism cannot be permanently concealed.

The current facade of prosperity in the Solana ecosystem is actually a game constituted by insider-led bundled tokens and artificially controlled liquidity. Here, manipulative behavior is not only unhidden, but has become a competitive advantage. However, just like historical cases of market manipulation, this gap will inevitably lead to a collapse.

The ongoing operation of the Solana ecosystem relies on a stable influx of liquidity. However, once large-scale capital injections cease, the vulnerabilities of the entire system will be laid bare. The prosperity seen currently may just be the echoes of past glory. The collapse of the "manipulation gap" will be brutal, especially against the backdrop of the current deteriorating economic environment.

Why is this happening? Because we are already at the tail end of this market cycle. When the deteriorating macroeconomic environment is combined with the fragility of the artificially supported on-chain economy, the result is a massive capital withdrawal.

In the meme coin space, the liquidity of manipulators has only one goal - to exit. These tokens have no future cash flow, no real use, and no foundation of trust. Only insiders try to extract value at the last moment. This is why meme coins are so dangerous in the current cycle. When people generally believe that an asset is fundamentally worthless, the only remaining consensus is to sell off. This means that the only goal of insiders becomes clear: to cash out as much as possible before the curtain falls.

What will dominate when the manipulation gap disappears? The answer is a return to the fundamental principles of capitalism.

It is overly naive to believe that cryptocurrencies will always have the attributes of a large casino, and to think that meme coins will always be the most positive expected value bets just because of a bad experience with utility tokens. As traders, we start to believe in any currency that can bring maximum returns. Meme coins inherently create a favorable environment for maximizing profits (especially towards the end of a cycle), as you can "manipulate" without violating regulatory rules, and without having to bear any responsibility. I believe this is merely a natural state towards the end of a cycle, rather than a new norm that will prevail forever.

In the future, we are likely to see the market refocus on utility tokens. The internet capital market is not a bad concept, but I firmly believe it has been deployed on the wrong blockchain. While we can break the feedback loop of the lack of market interest in utility tokens, we cannot break the feedback loop driven by human addictive behavior. As for the culture of Solana, I think it has somewhat self-destructed. This is more of my personal opinion rather than a conclusion drawn from objective observations.

It is worth noting that, as traders, we should not engage in "manipulative" behavior. Instead, if action is to be taken, a more prudent choice might be to go long. In this market (especially in on-chain trading), being overly committed to moral positions may lead to being marginalized. The reality is that not only this industry, but the entire world is filled with uncertainty and potential fraud.

Many traders often experience a moral dilemma after learning the ins and outs of the market. However, it is more important to remain objective and rational. Instead of shouting at the system, it is better to learn to adapt to it and understand its operating mechanisms, so that in the end, you will have a better understanding of the market than ever before.

So, if you don't plan to reduce risk by shorting, what other options are there?

Personally, I chose to significantly reduce my risk exposure in August. Another option is to focus on other well-performing but less widely recognized blockchain projects. For example, the performance on the Base chain has been quite stable, and the liquidity injection of projects like ZORA cannot be overlooked. In recent days, I personally chose to move some funds to Base and increased my risk exposure there, instead of continuing to invest in Solana.