The market is fluctuating and falling. BTC AAVE BERA potential is bullish, with multiple important unlocks approaching.

The Crypto Assets market showed a trend of fluctuation and fall this week, with the market sentiment index dropping from 11% to 8%. The market capitalization of stablecoins experienced rapid growth, with USDT and USDC reaching 142.7 billion and 57.2 billion USD respectively, with rises of 0.49% and 2.32%, indicating that funds are getting on board, primarily from the US. Although concerns about a recession in the US have eased, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates three times this year, but the repeated policy changes have led to increased fluctuation in Bitcoin prices, resulting in greater panic in market sentiment, and alternative coins generally underperformed compared to the Benchmark.

Bullish targets for next week: BTC, S, AAVE, BERA

BTC: Concerns about economic recession at the macro level have been alleviated, and the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates three times this year. On the BTC side, after panic selling, most holders did not sell and have started accumulating, expecting a positive trend next week.

S: Although there was a fall this week, Sonic's fundamentals remain unchanged. TVL rose by 9.23%, and major on-chain DeFi projects have all seen growth. The high APY remains attractive, with on-chain lending rates rising to 14%. Daily income is $210,000, ranking 6th among public chains, with frequent DeFi activity.

AAVE: This week it rose against the trend by 21.38%, with a TVL rise of 5.86%. It mainly benefited from the governance and token economic model optimization proposal ( to repurchase tokens, increase staking rewards, optimize liquidity ), and the White House's support for abolishing DeFi trading report rules. This may trigger a repurchase boom in the DeFi industry, injecting vitality into the sector.

BERA: Although it has fallen this week, on-chain data and fundamentals remain unchanged. The growth rate of the leading projects' TVL has slowed, but LSD and DEX projects continue to maintain high growth. High APY remains attractive to investors, and the demand for BERA has not decreased. The decline is mainly influenced by the market environment, and the logic for a rise still exists.

Next week's bearish targets: APE, APT, MERL, TON

APE: The NFT and Gamefi sectors have lost attention, with a decrease in users and a lack of new capital inflow. On March 16, 15.37 million APE will be unlocked, accounting for 1.54% of the total locked amount, facing significant selling pressure.

APT: Although it benefits from the ETF application, it is not included in the Crypto Assets reserve plan. On March 12, 11.3 million APT will be unlocked, accounting for 1% of the total locked amount, which may create selling pressure. If the encryption summit announces details of the reserve plan, it may lead to a transfer of funds.

MERL: The TVL has significantly decreased by 12.44%, with major ecological projects MerlinSwap and Pell Network dropping by 34.33% and 87.11% respectively. The development of BTC ecological projects is facing difficulties, and the fall of BTC has led to a withdrawal of staking. On-chain funds continue to flow out, and a further decline may occur.

TON: TVL fell by 10.68%, and the TVL of almost all on-chain projects decreased. Since last year, there has been a continuous downward trend in TVL, with SocialFi projects lacking breakout hits and the popularity of on-chain mini-games waning. The user profit effect has worsened, and funds continue to exit, which is expected to continue to fall.

The market sentiment index has dropped from 11% to 8%, entering the extreme fear zone.

Hot Track:

Aave performed outstandingly, with a TVL growth rate of 5.86% and a coin price rise of 21.38%. This is mainly benefited from the governance and Token economic model optimization proposals and the White House's support for abolishing DeFi trading reporting rules. The Aave repurchase proposal may trigger a shift towards dividends or repurchase models in the DeFi industry. However, AAVE's price-to-earnings ratio is 60.86 times, higher than Maker's 20.75 times, indicating a relatively low cost-performance ratio.

Berachain TVL rose by 17.21% to $3.449 billion, but the BERA price fell by 12.94%. The rise mainly comes from the high APY of LSD and DEX projects. Berachain forms a sustainable growth cycle through the path of "staking lockup → liquidity release → DeFi empowerment → token appreciation → user return → re-staking → developer gathering". Currently, the BERA staking ratio is about 30%, leaving room for further rise.

Among the market themes, the PayFi sector performed the best, while the Sociafi sector performed the worst.

Important events next week:

• March 12: US February End Seasonally Adjusted CPI Year-on-Year
• March 13: Web3 Amsterdam 2025

Overall, the crypto market is in a state of fluctuation and panic. Although there is a return of funds to stablecoins and some hot sectors are performing steadily, the overall market is affected by macro policy uncertainty and insufficient investor confidence. Projects like BTC, AAVE, and Berachain are expected to become market highlights, and investors need to pay attention to the impact of on-chain data, macro policies, and unlocking events on the market.