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$BTC
📊 New Day, New Data
We’ve got weak pivot points on both sides, which adds some complexity to the outlook.
Let’s break it down 👇
Price:
We saw a solid bounce from demand over the weekend, and it did leave behind a clean-looking demand zone.
That said, because it was formed during weekend price action, I’m approaching it with some caution — these zones tend to be less significant in terms of holding power.
Time (monthly):
❌ 70% chance to take out the monthly high
❌ 100% chance to put in a new low if the high holds
⚠️ 90% of monthly highs form after the current high
➡️ Bias: Bullish
Time (daily):
❌ 71% chance to take out the daily low
❌ 100% chance to take out the high if the low holds
⚠️ 87% of daily lows form after the current low
➡️ Bias: Bearish
Distance (monthly):
⚠️ 41% chance to take out the monthly high
❌ 100% chance for further displacement
⚠️ 97% of monthly highs have a larger wick
➡️ Bias: Bullish
Distance (daily):
⚠️ 38% chance to take out the daily low
❌ 100% chance for more displacement
⚠️ 96% of daily lows have a larger wick
➡️ Bias: Bearish
Plan:
After breaking down the data, here’s where I stand:
Monthly bias: Still leaning bullish, expecting the monthly high to get taken out at some point. From there I'm expecting higher prices, but for now it's too early for a full confirmation, but the probability is building.
Daily bias: For now, I’m expecting lower prices today, ideally a retest of the demand zone or weekend lows before continuation higher.