Market Analysis for August 1, 2025

Since last night, the cryptocurrency market has once again experienced a pullback, with BTC dropping below $115,000 at its lowest point. This marks the lowest point of the pullback since BTC broke through $120,000 nearly half a month ago. Ethereum, correspondingly, fell to nearly $3,600 at its lowest and has yet to regain $3,700. With each bull market pullback, the market is always filled with concerns, especially regarding Ethereum. In the past two years, each time it has approached the resistance level of $4,000, a pullback has commenced, and it has never managed to reach its historical high. The same situation has played out multiple times, making it hard not to question whether this time will be different.
First, let’s state the conclusion: I currently believe this still falls within a reasonable correction. The narrative this round revolves around Wall Street funds. Whether it’s the Ethereum version of MicroStrategy, the issuance of stablecoins, or the development of RWA, these are all direct positives for Ethereum. As for how the Ethereum version of MicroStrategy will perform later, we can refer to Bitcoin's price trends. When MicroStrategy continuously buys Bitcoin through dollar-cost averaging, we remain skeptical, even worried that this buying method might lead to a larger drop in BTC. In fact, Bitcoin has not only steadily risen but has also gained strong buying support during the downturn period. Currently, it seems that Ethereum's "MicroStrategy-like" approach will continue. However, the recent aggressive MicroStrategy-like strategies in altcoins have led to a short-term de-bubbling process in the U.S. stock market. Once this wave of gains is digested, Ethereum's value will be recognized by the market again.
The most direct data shows that the Ethereum Foundation's ranking in terms of the amount of coins held has fallen out of the top three. Suddenly, I remember what I said earlier about Ethereum.