Conducted research on a set of data

Cash flow discounting data of ETH over the past 10 years

Conclusion and Outlook

1⃣️In the past 10 years, the ETH protocol's revenue has increased approximately 1600 to 1800 times, with the total revenue for the year 2024 estimated to be around 5 billion USD ➕ total protocol revenue (the growth rate is too exaggerated to be considered a reference).

In the last three years, the cash flow conversion growth rate of ETHpos mining has exceeded 30%, surpassing all global assets of the same level (including Bitcoin).

The income from the ETH protocol is significantly affected by market trends, showing clear periodicity. However, it is worth mentioning that the network's cash flow income forms a positive comparison with the ETH price. At any given time, the cash flow discount rate tends to be at a relatively high level.

4⃣️Currently, as a core network protocol revenue source of ETH, is there hope for the growth of its scale❓ The answer is affirmative, in the next three years, the overall DeFi business is expected to grow by more than 500%.

Is there a new business growth curve for the ETH network, increasing protocol revenue? The answer is affirmative, with the activity of payfi, rwa, gamefi, socifi, and depin all at a five-year low.

Is the protocol revenue growth of 6⃣️ETH expected to sustain steady long-term growth? The answer is uncertain and may be influenced by various factors, exhibiting strong cyclicality. For example, Trump supported cryptocurrencies during his presidency, but after changing presidents, it fell into a cold bench. However, there is a high probability of sustained growth.

7⃣️ETH cash flow conversion valuation, is it reasonable❓ The answer is affirmative, network protocol fees come from the activity of the network protocol. Activity means there is circulation, and users can autonomously generate profits without the need for centralized institutions to distribute them. It is more flexible and efficient, and does not affect network business.

8⃣️Estimated lifecycle of ETH - I don't know, but personally I think it's at least a 20-year sunrise industry.