Bitcoin Price Prediction: Seller Risk Hits New Low Since June, Whales Continue Accumulation Which May Help BTC Challenge ATH in August

Bitcoin ( BTC ) has been consolidating in the range of $117,261 to $120,000 for the past two weeks, failing to refresh its historical high ( ATH ). However, on-chain data shows key positive signals: seller risk has dropped to a six-month low of 0.24, and the accumulation trend score is approaching 1.0, indicating that whales are actively accumulating. Historical data shows that August is typically a bear market month for Bitcoin (median return -8.3%), but the current accumulation intensity may break the seasonal curse. If it successfully holds above the $120,000 support, BTC is expected to target $122,000 and aim for ATH.

[Consolidation: Bulls and Bears Compete at the $120,000 Level] Bitcoin price is currently trading at $118,938, oscillating within a narrow range of $117,261 to $120,000 over the past two weeks. This sideways pattern has temporarily hindered the price from refreshing its historical high, but on-chain indicators reveal that a critical shift is occurring within the market.

[On-chain Positive Signal: Seller Pressure Drastically Reduced, Whales Accelerate Accumulation]

1. Seller risk drops to 0.24:
   • The indicator has reached a 6-month low, far below the neutral threshold of 0.4, and is close to the low value realization threshold of 0.1.
   • Indicates that market selling pressure has significantly weakened, and investors have paused large-scale sell-offs, entering the Accumulation Phase.
   • Historical experience shows that low seller risk often indicates the formation of a market bottom, accumulating strength for subsequent rises.
2. Accumulation trend score approaching 1.0:
   • Over the past two weeks, the score has remained close to 1.0 (full score), reflecting that large holders, including Whales, are actively accumulating Bitcoin.
   • Whale behavior has a significant impact on cryptocurrency prices, with a near-perfect accumulation score indicating strong bullish sentiment from institutions and high-net-worth investors.
   • The sustained buying has laid a solid foundation for Bitcoin to break through recent resistance levels, demonstrating an increased confidence in the long-term value of BTC.

[August Outlook: Historical Curses vs Real Momentum]

• Historical Seasonal Bearishness: Historical data shows that August is one of the weakest months for Bitcoin, with a historical median monthly return as low as -8.3%.
• Current Breakthrough Momentum: Strong on-chain accumulation signals (low selling risk + high accumulation score) provide fundamental support for breaking the August curse.
• Key Breakthrough Path:

  • Bullish Scenario: If investor sentiment remains positive, Bitcoin successfully breaks and holds above the $120,000 support level, it is expected to quickly target $122,000 and ultimately challenge the historical high (ATH).

  • Downside Risk: If unexpected market factors cause investors to turn bearish and break below the $117,261 key support, it may trigger a pullback to $115,000, reversing the current bullish logic.

    

【Conclusion: Waiting for Directional Choice, Focus on Key Price Levels】 Bitcoin is currently in a typical state of balance between bulls and bears. Despite facing historical seasonal pressure in August, the on-chain data revealing whale accumulation behavior and a sharp reduction in selling pressure have built strong momentum for a price breakthrough. Investors should closely monitor the breakout direction in the 117,261-120,000 USD range: effectively holding above 120,000 USD will open the door to ATH; conversely, if it breaks below the 117,000 USD support, one should be wary of a deep correction. Before the direction becomes clear, it is recommended to formulate flexible strategies by combining on-chain data with key price levels, and to be alert to the risks of sudden market fluctuations.