Ethereum has once again become the focus of the cryptocurrency market, with its price rising over 50% in just two weeks, currently stabilizing around $3730. This significant increase has sparked widespread discussion in the market about future trends, particularly whether the $9000 target is realistically achievable.

From on-chain data, Ethereum's fundamentals are showing positive signals. The staking amount has reached a record 34 million coins, accounting for 28% of the total supply. This long-term locking behavior effectively reduces the circulating supply. At the same time, the exchange's Ethereum balance has dropped to 16.2 million, hitting a nearly decade low, indicating a reduction in selling pressure. Institutional investors are also showing strong interest, with net inflows into ETFs exceeding $4 billion.

Market sentiment indicators show that although 94.4% of addresses are in profit, the overall heat has not been excessive. Glassnode data reflects that the NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit Loss) is 0.47, falling within the "Optimistic/Anxious" range, indicating that there is still some room away from the bubble phase. This means that the current market may not yet have reached its peak.

In terms of network demand, although the average transfer fee has dropped to a low of 0.0004 ETH, Gas usage continues to rise, reflecting high network operational efficiency, especially since Layer 2 solutions are bearing most of the load. It is expected that after the block Gas limit is raised again in July 2025, actual demand may further increase.

Technical analysis shows that if Ethereum can effectively break through the psychological barrier of $4000, it may trigger a new round of increase. Some predictive models even indicate that under favorable macro conditions, Ethereum is expected to reach a target of $9000 by early 2026.

However, there are also potential risks in the market. If the price breaks below the support level of $3500, it may pull back to the range of $3300-3150. In addition, there is a large number of contracts established between $3000 and $3400, which could trigger short-term volatility.

Overall, both the fundamental and technical aspects of Ethereum currently show strong momentum. Coupled with continuous institutional positioning and relatively rational market sentiment, the target of $9000, although ambitious, is not impossible to achieve. The key lies in whether it can solidly maintain above $4000; breaking through this threshold may attract more incremental funds into the market, driving prices further upward.