To all commodity short positions: A letter of persuasion.

Since the beginning of this spring, the commodity market has shown a tremendous momentum. Crude oil has surged past a hundred and shows no signs of stopping, copper and aluminum are breaking through barriers like a hot knife through butter, agricultural products are rising from south to north, and precious metals are holding their heads high from west to east. This is not a sudden cold snap, but rather a trend driven by the larger forces at play -- the reconstruction of the global supply chain is still ongoing, resource constraints are tightening; the energy transition is forcing old production to shrink, while new supply fails to keep up with old consumption; and the stimulus in various countries still lingers, leading to a gradual recovery in real demand. These three forces converge like rivers flowing into the sea, unstoppable.
Looking at what you rely on, some say "inflation has peaked", some say "demand is weak", and some say "the Fed's interest rate hikes have not ended". However, as of today, crude oil inventories have fallen for thirteen consecutive weeks, copper concentrate processing fees have dropped to a five-year low, and export restrictions from major wheat-producing countries have not yet eased. The "bearish" factors you depend on have long been like a candle in the wind, swaying precariously.
Looking at your situation: those holding short positions, their margin consumption is like flowing water; those stubbornly holding onto their positions, their accounts are suffering losses like an avalanche. Last week, tin prices surged 12% in a single day, how many shorts were liquidated in an instant; this week, rebar has broken through three levels, how many accounts were forcibly liquidated at midnight. This is not the market being ruthless, but rather it is difficult for those going against the trend to survive. In the past, during the Battle of Guandu, Yuan Shao had a large army but lost against the odds; during the fire at Chibi, Cao Cao relied on his strength on land and water but perished against the geographical advantage. Now you all are going against the tide of bulk commodities, resisting the major trend of supply and demand reversal, the danger is clear.
Some say: "Withdraw temporarily to wait for the opportunity." Little do they know, the trend is like an arrow drawn from a bow, once released it cannot be retrieved. The current commodity bull market is not a short-term fluctuation, but a medium to long-term pattern -- the rigid constraints of resource supply starting from a production cycle of at least ten years (, while on the demand side, the resonance of new energy, infrastructure, and manufacturing ) the surge in photovoltaic installations requires copper and aluminum, the expansion of wind power requires steel, the explosion of new energy vehicles requires lithium and cobalt (. This situation cannot be broken in a day; if you all cling to fighting, you may find even no place to turn.
If one can suddenly awaken to the reality, it is not too late to abandon short positions and switch to long ones at this moment. Releasing the short positions feels like lifting a heavy burden, and establishing long positions can help reverse the downward trend. Past floating losses may be gradually recovered; the vitality of the account can still be restored. However, if one remains stubborn and waits for change, the liquidation list tomorrow may very well include your names; next week's liquidation announcement will surely bear your signatures.
It is said: "Those who understand the times are the wise, and those who know when to advance and retreat are the sages." Now the situation is clear, and the pros and cons are evident. I hope everyone will assess the situation and make a decision early -- abandon short positions as one would discard old shoes, and follow the bulls in the current trend. In this way, capital can be preserved, vitality will not be harmed, and there will still be opportunities for resurgence in the future. If you continue to resist, it will be too late to regret!
Words of persuasion end here. Where to go from here, you all decide.