Bit Deer Business Analysis: Self-developed Chips and AI Computing Power Dual-driven Rise

Bitdeer recently announced its operational data for November, in which the highly anticipated A2 mining machines have begun mass production, with the first batch of 30,000 units sold externally. This marks an important advance for the company in self-developed chips and mining machine sales.

In the past six months, Little Deer has successfully completed the initial production of A2 and A3 mining machine chips. According to public information, the operational parameters of the A2 mining machine are already at an industry-leading level, while the A3 mining machine is expected to become the largest in global single-unit hash Computing Power and have the best energy consumption ratio. It is anticipated that the A3 mining machine will primarily be used for deploying self-operated Computing Power in the short term, with a lower possibility of external sales.

As of the end of November, the company has completed the deployment of 895MW of electric fields in the United States, Norway, and Bhutan. An additional 1645MW of projects are under construction, with 1415MW expected to be completed in the latter half of 2025. The company has also established a dedicated department focused on the acquisition of more electric field projects, with the potential to add over 1GW of electric field capacity by 2026. It is worth noting that the average electricity price for all self-operated electric fields is less than $0.04/kWh, which presents a significant advantage in the industry.

According to the model prediction, when the price of Bitcoin exceeds $150,000, the pre-tax profit growth of the Bit Deer self-operated mining farm will exceed the rise in the price of Bitcoin. If the price of Bitcoin reaches $200,000, the pre-tax profit margin of the self-operated mining farm may approach 80%.

Regarding the issue of the ratio of mining machine sales to self-use, it is expected that by the end of 2025, the company's self-operated Computing Power may account for about 20% of the total network Computing Power. Although the current cash flow may face pressure, the cash flow generated from the sale of mining machines can support the expansion of self-operated Computing Power.

In addition to traditional mining operations, Bit Deer is actively laying out the AI computing power market. The company has begun deploying Nvidia H200 chips in TIER3 data centers for AI computing power construction. In the short term, the company plans to invest at least 200MW of electricity to deploy high-end chips and start providing cloud calling services for clients like MEGA 7, using a model similar to COREWEAVE.

From an investment perspective, BitDeer is currently in a favorable position, with the first growth curve (mining machine business) and the second growth curve (AI Computing Power) expected to develop simultaneously. According to the valuation method of mainstream North American mining stock companies at an average of $170 million/EHs, BitDeer's market value could range between $20.4 billion and $37.4 billion over the next two years, representing a rise potential of 4.8 to 9.7 times compared to the current stock price.

However, investors also need to be aware of the risk of Bitcoin price fluctuations and the potential risk of TSMC wafer production due to sanctions.