July 2025 Snapshot 🧵



Global liquidity, derivative risk, network profitability, and an update on altcoins.

1) Global Liquidity (GL)

- 88% correlation with the BTC price.
- Past cycles: 2 years of liquidity down, 2 years up; now in a 3‑year contraction (2022–24), hinting at a longer bull cycle.
- Normally: 1% GL rise → 4–7% BTC. July GL is at an all‑time high (now); sensitivity spikes to 20–30% per 1% GL increase, signaling potential for a parabolic move.

2) Derivative Risk (DR)

- Tracks leverage and positioning to spot market extremes
- Currently low, suggesting leverage is reset and market has room to run

3) Network Profitability

- On-chain metrics identify tops/bottoms based on long-term holder movements
- MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value)
- NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit / Loss)
- SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio)
- Current status: neutral-to-bullish

4) Altcoins Update

- Using Top-200 equal-weight index (Advance/Decline oscillator), altcoins bottomed after a long bear market (2021-April 2025).
- Early signs of broader participation
BTC0.76%
MOVE2.07%
post-image
post-image
post-image
post-image
This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.
  • Reward
  • Comment
  • Share
Comment
0/400
No comments
Trade Crypto Anywhere Anytime
qrCode
Scan to download Gate app
Community
English
  • 简体中文
  • English
  • Tiếng Việt
  • 繁體中文
  • Español
  • Русский
  • Français (Afrique)
  • Português (Portugal)
  • Bahasa Indonesia
  • 日本語
  • بالعربية
  • Українська
  • Português (Brasil)