Trump Dinner: Sincere Gratitude or Something Else?

Recently, news about Trump hosting the "TRUMP DINNER" banquet has attracted widespread attention. It is reported that the banquet will be held on May 22 in Washington, inviting the first 220 token holders, among whom the top 25 will also receive the opportunity for a private VIP reception with Trump, as well as a special VIP tour of the White House the next day. Trump himself will attend as a guest, and the event does not involve any fundraising activities.

This news inevitably brings to mind the token unlocking event that occurred not long ago: on April 18th, 40 million tokens worth approximately 300 million dollars were unlocked, accounting for 20% of the circulating supply. Some can't help but wonder, is this banquet a sincere "thanksgiving feast," or is it a "Honeymoon Banquet" with ulterior motives?

After the news was released, the token price rose rapidly, reaching a high of $14.37 at one point. As of the time of this report, the quote is $12.37, with an increase of over 33%.

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Market Response is Swift

After the news was released, the market reacted quickly. According to data platform monitoring, an investor spent 5 million USDC to purchase 407,467 tokens at a price of $12.27. Subsequently, this investor sold all the purchased tokens for a total price of $5.73 million within just half an hour, netting a profit of $731,800.

Another long-term liquidity provider also withdrew liquidity from two wallets that morning, obtaining 211,977 tokens (worth $2.76 million) and 18,376 SOL (also worth $2.76 million). Both wallets are now among the top 220 holders, with a chance to receive an invitation to the dinner. It is worth mentioning that this investor purchased 332,424 tokens at a price of $2.41 on the day of the token listing (worth $802,000) and provided liquidity. At the peak price, these tokens were once worth over $24 million.

However, not all investors are so lucky. According to on-chain analysts, an investor liquidated their position about 20 hours before the positive news was announced, earning only $483,000. If they had held their position until after the news was released, their theoretical profit could have reached $4.28 million.

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The future of tokens is worrisome

From a long-term performance perspective, the token's performance has been disappointing. Although it briefly surged to over $75 on the day of its issuance, the rise quickly fell back as investors noticed the token's high concentration and short exercise period. After its launch on January 17, the token's market capitalization reached about $15 billion at one point, but by January 20, it plummeted by over 50%. Considering that 80% of the supply was allocated to founders and entities controlled by Trump, the current market capitalization of $2.6 billion seems difficult to justify.

Although Trump's move has temporarily stimulated trading volume, it is difficult for the long-term price trend of the tokens to undergo substantial changes based solely on one dinner. The current surge is more a result of market speculation and Trump's personal charisma working together. In the long run, unless concerns regarding token unlocking for investors can be effectively alleviated, it will be hard to reverse its long-standing lackluster performance.

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NFTs are in the spotlight again

It is worth noting that the official terms state: Trump may be absent from the dinner. If the dinner is canceled or he fails to attend, eligible token holders will receive a limited edition NFT as compensation. This means that this event could not only drive token prices but also potentially bring Trump-themed NFTs back into the market spotlight.

In fact, even before the second campaign, Trump attempted to promote NFTs. On May 8, he held an NFT dinner in Florida, inviting buyers who purchased at least 47 "MugShot Edition" NFTs to attend. This series consists of 100,000 NFTs, priced at $99 each, and purchasing 47 (for $4,653) would grant the opportunity to have dinner with Trump.

The history of Trump issuing NFTs dates back to December 2022. At that time, he released 45,000 cards featuring various character images. These NFTs were minted on Polygon, with the standard edition cards priced at $99. Customers who purchased 45 cards received an NFT dinner ticket. According to statistics, all NFTs sold out within 12 hours. In March 2023, when Trump faced investigation and prosecution, the price of the NFTs soared to nearly $1,700.

In April 2023, the Trump team launched the second series, maintaining a price of $99, selling out within 5 hours and generating $4.6 million in revenue.

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Conclusion

Currently, Trump seems to be operating both token and NFT lines simultaneously. Whether these two can continue to strengthen or not, the short-term price surge and heated exposure have already achieved a certain effect. However, investors still need to be cautious and closely monitor market trends.

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