Analysis of Multiple Factors Behind the Surge in Value of the Sui Ecosystem

Recently, the Sui ecosystem has experienced a remarkable bullish trend, with its governance token SUI rising over 75% within a week, far surpassing the market performance during the same period. This phenomenon is driven by complex factors, including speculation fueled by market rumors, significant changes in capital flow, and ongoing improvements in the ecosystem's fundamentals. This article will delve into the capital dynamics of this rally, key news catalysts, on-chain data performance, and potential risks, providing a comprehensive interpretation of the logic behind this ecological frenzy.

Capital Flow Analysis: Hot Money Floods into Exchanges, Contract Positions Surge

From the perspective of on-chain fund flow, Sui has not shown significant changes recently. Over a three-month period, Sui experienced a net outflow of 32 million USD, which is relatively small. The changes in on-chain funds over the past month and week have been even more negligible, failing to even make it into the top twenty in the public blockchain rankings.

However, the capital flow of the exchange has shown a significant inflow trend. Data shows that in the past seven days, the spot capital inflow of SUI reached 62.86 million USD, ranking fourth among all cryptocurrencies, only behind USDT, ETH, and FUSD. In addition, tokens from the Sui network ecosystem such as WAL, MEMEFI, and CETUS have also made it to the top ten in the contract capital inflow rankings in the past seven days, reflecting a high level of capital activity in the Sui ecosystem.

The contract holdings of the SUI token experienced a surge starting from April 21, increasing from $700 million to $1.419 billion within a week, approaching the historical high of $1.5 billion. Most tokens in the Sui ecosystem also saw significant increases within the week, with about 20% of tokens rising over 100%, and 37.5% of tokens rising over 50%, showing a trend of widespread growth.

From a financial perspective, this surge is a comprehensive collective boost for the Sui ecosystem. Although most projects have no actual positive developments, the price fluctuations are quite evident.

Multiple positive factors boost market sentiment

On April 21, mainstream tokens began to rebound in sync, and the rise of Sui also started with the market's rhythm, followed by several positive news reports. It is currently difficult to determine whether these news reports are the real driving force behind Sui's surge or just "smoke bombs" released to accompany the price increase.

Some noteworthy ecological cooperation news includes:

1. Pokémon Collaboration Rumors: Originating from the update of the privacy policy of the Pokémon HOME app, which lists Parasol Technologies, acquired by Sui core development team Mysten Labs, as an authorized developer. This has sparked market speculation that Pokémon may integrate its IP into the Sui blockchain.

2. xMoney/xPortal Partnership: Sui has announced a partnership with these two platforms to launch the Sui-branded virtual Mastercard in Europe, integrated within the xPortal application, which has 2.5 million users, supporting payments with SUI and other cryptocurrencies.

3. ETF-related news: 21Shares established the "SUI ETF" statutory trust entity as early as January 2025, and this news has recently been re-exposed, providing support for the rise of SUI.

4. Other positive developments: The Athens Stock Exchange Group is building an on-chain fundraising platform on Sui, Nautilus brings verifiable off-chain privacy solutions to Sui, and Canary Capital has submitted an application for a SUI ETF, among others.

Overall, Sui's recent progress in various fields such as Web3 gaming, privacy, and development environments has come together to form a comprehensive positive outlook, which is different from the previous explosive reactions triggered by single pieces of news.

Surge in DEX Trading Volume and Increased Developer Activity

Since April, the DEX trading volume on the Sui network has remained at a high level, reaching a historic peak of $998 million on March 29. The leading DEX project in the ecosystem, Cetus Protocol, has driven the growth of the entire ecosystem, with its trading volume increasing by 84.5% over the past week. Another significant contributor, Kriya, contributed $780 million in trading volume on March 29.

The surge in trading volume on these DEXs may be related to the airdrop of Walrus. On March 27, the decentralized storage project Walrus released an airdrop, and on that day, the trading volume of the token reached $380 million, becoming one of the main reasons for the recent increase in trading volume on the Sui network.

The activity level of developers is also a fundamental reason for the growth of the Sui network. Starting in December 2024, the frequency of GitHub code submissions for the Sui network reached its peak, maintaining over 500 submissions per week, far surpassing the levels of Solana and Aptos.

Potential Risks and Future Outlook

Despite the bullish market sentiment, there are still several notable risk points:

1. The selling pressure caused by the continuous unlocking of SUI tokens releases tens of millions of tokens each week.

2. The upward structure of the Sui ecosystem is primarily led by DEX or infrastructure projects, while MEME tokens or application/game projects have not yet performed prominently.

3. There is a lack of "influencer" applications in the ecosystem that can attract a large number of users.

In summary, the recent surge of the SUI token and its ecosystem is the result of market speculation, influx of funds, expectations from the contract market, and fundamental developments. However, while paying attention to Sui's price performance, it is also important to be wary of the selling pressure brought about by the continuous unlocking of tokens, and to monitor whether its application ecosystem can further prosper. This will be key in determining whether Sui can convert the current enthusiasm into long-term value.