Bitcoin hits a record high of 17 million yen, is there room for further market rise? | Contribution by bitbank analyst

## This Week's Weekly Report

The analyst Hasegawa from the major domestic exchange bitbank illustrates this week's cryptocurrency (virtual currency) Bitcoin chart and interprets the outlook for the future.

Table of Contents

1. Bitcoin On-Chain Data
2. Contribution by bitbank

Bitcoin On-chain Data

BTC transaction count

BTC Transactions (Monthly)

Active Address Count

Active Address Count (Monthly)

BTC mining pool withdrawal address

Exchange and other services

bitbank Analyst Analysis (Contribution: Tomoya Hasegawa)

This week's weekly report:

This week's Bitcoin (BTC) to yen exchange rate has shown an upward trend, recovering to 17 million yen as of noon on the 11th, setting a new all-time high.

At the beginning of the week, the BTC/JPY was caught between rising US interest rates and the rising USD/JPY exchange rate, resulting in a consolidation in the upper 15 million yen range. However, on the 8th, it aimed to surpass 16 million yen due to the rise in long-term interest rates and the decline in consumer inflation expectations in the US for June.

On the 9th, the market continued to move slightly from Tokyo time to European time, but when the minutes of the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) were released, it became clear that there were differing views among officials regarding the impact of tariffs, which raised expectations for interest rate cuts and pushed the market up to 16.3 million yen.

On the 10th, U.S. time, while the U.S. stock market remained strong, the U.S. Treasury and IRS announced the repeal of customer transaction information submission rules for DeFi and others. Due to expectations of regulatory easing, the market broke through 16.5 million yen. In the early hours of the 11th, accompanied by short covering, it approached 17 million yen, and during Tokyo time, buying momentum prevailed, rising to 17.17 million yen.

【Figure 1: BTC to JPY Chart (1 Hour)】 Source: created from bitbank.cc

Last week's BTC to USD chart breakout from the descending channel turned out to be a false signal, but this week it showed resilience and beautifully maintained a consolidation before breaking out upwards (Figure 2).

Without waiting for next week's "Crypto Week" by the U.S. House Financial Services Committee, expectations for a Fed rate cut and regulatory easing have supported the market.

The "Genius Bill" regarding stablecoins, the "Clarity Bill" which excludes the majority of crypto assets from the securities category, and the "Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Bill" are scheduled to be discussed starting next week, raising expectations for clarification and easing of cryptocurrency regulations in the U.S. as potential support for the market.

【Figure 2: BTC to USD Chart (Daily)】 Source: Created by Glassnode

Additionally, in the Deribit BTC options market, following a market rise on the 10th, open interest has increased at the $120,000 and $130,000 strike prices. The put-call ratio is also starting to lean slightly bullish, suggesting that there may be a bit more room for a rise in the market in the short term.

However, next week on the 15th, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June will be announced, and on the 16th, the Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released. On the 10th, St. Louis Fed President Bullard pointed out that the impact of Trump's tariffs may emerge from the inflation indicators for June.

As for the market, it has become clear from the contents of the FOMC minutes that certain officials expect the effects of tariffs to be temporary, and it is pointed out that the acceleration of inflation in June is not much of a surprise. However, if inflation accelerates, there is a possibility that expectations for interest rate cuts may recede until it calms down again.

The immediate outlook for BTC is expected to remain solid due to trend-following buying from the breakout of consolidation and expectations of regulatory easing, but caution is warranted regarding rising interest rates due to the resurgence of inflation in the U.S.

Contributor: Yuya Hasegawa After completing graduate school in the UK, I worked as an analyst in the FinTech industry and cryptocurrency market at a venture company comprised of former financial institution employees. Since 2019, I have been a market analyst at Bitbank Inc. I have provided comments to major domestic financial media and have numerous contributions to overseas media. List of Past Reports