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The four-year cycle of crypto assets is no longer applicable, and Bitcoin investment remains the preferred choice.
Crypto Assets market is maturing, the four-year cycle theory is facing challenges
In recent years, the Crypto Assets market has undergone significant changes, and the traditional four-year cycle theory seems no longer applicable. This article will explore the reasons behind this change and its impact on investment strategies.
Origin of the Four-Year Cycle Theory
The four-year cycle theory originates from the fundamental mechanism of Bitcoin. Every four years, the inflation rate of Bitcoin is halved. The first halving in 2012 reduced the new Bitcoin issuance from 50 BTC per block to 25 BTC. The early halving events had a significant impact on the supply and demand balance of Bitcoin, leading to a surge in price, and other Crypto Assets also rose accordingly.
However, over time, the impact of halving on prices gradually weakens. The most recent halving in 2024 will only reduce the new issuance from 6.25 BTC to 3.12 BTC. Considering that nearly 95% of Bitcoin is already in circulation, the impact of future halving events on prices will become smaller.
Major Changes in Market Landscape
In the past two years, the Crypto Assets market has undergone two major changes:
At the beginning of 2024, the approval of the Bitcoin ETF opened up the global market for it. Anyone can include Bitcoin in their retirement investment portfolio, bringing in a large influx of new funds. However, these funds mainly flow into Bitcoin, with very little going into other Crypto Assets.
At the same time, the number of altcoins has surged to millions, diluting market liquidity. The altcoin rebound in November 2024 appears weak compared to previous years, with most altcoins failing to reach new highs. The market capitalization of Bitcoin has exceeded 60%, reaching the highest level since 2021.
Bitcoin is still the best choice
Although the four-year cycle theory may no longer apply, Bitcoin remains the best long-term investment choice for the following reasons:
In contrast, the competition in the altcoin market is becoming increasingly fierce, making it harder to choose winners. Investors should allocate the majority of their funds to Bitcoin and be cautious when participating in altcoin investments.
The Crypto Assets market is maturing, and investment strategies need to keep pace with the times. Focusing on fundamentals and long-term value, rather than short-term cycles, is the wise choice.