Bitcoin ETF Market Analysis: The Impact of Institutional Participation on Market Trends

Recently, many well-known institutions have filed applications for Bitcoin spot ETFs with the SEC, attracting market attention. How is the trading situation of the currently listed Bitcoin-related ETFs and funds? What impact will institutional entry have on the Bitcoin market? This article will analyze from multiple angles.

Spot ETF and Trust Fund Holdings

As of July 18, BTCC.U, BTCE, and GBTC together hold approximately 675,600 BTC, equivalent to $2.027 billion at the current price. Since June, the total increase for the three has been 9,292 BTC, showing an overall growth trend. Among them, GBTC has the largest scale, holding 625,200 BTC; both BTCC.U and BTCE hold around 200,000 BTC.

From the change in holdings, since June, GBTC has decreased slightly by 0.25%, while BTCC.U and BTCE have increased by 24.83% and 31.07%, respectively.

In terms of return performance, due to the different product structures, the three have significant differences. Since July, the average return rate of BTCC.U has been 6.76%, with an average monthly return rate of 8.84% this year, clearly outperforming BTCE and GBTC. The average return rates for the latter two this month are -5.27% and -26.39%, respectively, while their average monthly return rates for this year are -5.85% and -38.18%, both in a loss state, but the extent of the losses has narrowed.

In terms of trading volume, GBTC had an average daily transaction of 3.926 million shares in July, far exceeding the BTCC series and BTCE. However, since June, the trading volume of all four funds has shown an upward trend, with GBTC experiencing a month-on-month increase of 112.67%.

Bitcoin Futures ETF Size and Performance

Currently, the main 5 Bitcoin futures ETFs ( BITO, XBTF, BTF, BITS, and DEFI ) have a total asset size of 1.295 billion USD. Among them, ProShares' BITO is the largest, reaching 1.199 billion USD.

From the perspective of capital flow, BITO has a net inflow of 259 million USD in the past month, making it the largest. Since the beginning of this year, all five ETFs have shown a net inflow, with BITO leading at 333 million USD.

In terms of trading activity, BITO had an average daily transaction of 9.9691 million shares in July, far exceeding other futures ETFs.

In terms of performance, BITS performed the best, with a return of 33.20% in the past month and 137.65% year-to-date, clearly outperforming other futures ETFs. Overall, the return rates of futures ETFs are generally higher than those of spot ETFs and trust funds.

The Impact of ETF News on Bitcoin Prices

The impact of institutional ETF applications and listings on Bitcoin prices mainly comes from three aspects:

1. Institutional reputation endorsement: Applications from leading institutions like BlackRock can further boost market confidence.

2. ETF Type: Spot ETF applications usually lead to greater increases.

3. Bitcoin Price Trend: If it is in an uptrend, news is more likely to drive the price up.

Specifically, one week after the announcement of BlackRock's application for a spot ETF, Bitcoin's average daily increase reached 2.78%, the highest within the statistical range. In addition, Bitcoin also showed a significant increase during the month of VanEck's futures ETF application and the month Jacobi's spot ETF was approved.

However, some ETF news failed to drive the price up, such as the recent Valkyrie spot ETF application which saw Bitcoin drop by 1.15% on the same day.

It is worth noting that the recent rise in Bitcoin prices is also related to the increase in on-chain transaction activity. On July 18, the number of on-chain Bitcoin transactions reached 582,500, an increase of 210.83% compared to the beginning of the year. Since May, the number of on-chain transactions has mostly remained above 400,000.

Overall, the impact of institutional participation such as ETFs on the Bitcoin market is multifaceted and requires a comprehensive analysis considering factors like the macro environment and on-chain data. In the future, as more institutions enter the market, the development of the Bitcoin ETF market is worth continuous attention.