Analyst Warned: "There Is No Meaning to the Record Level in Bitcoin, Focus on This Level"

Crypto analyst James Van Straten shared a noteworthy analysis regarding the recent price movements of Bitcoin.

Van Straten argues that the record levels in question, which are 20,000 dollars in 2017, 69,000 dollars in 2021, and 109,000 dollars in 2025, do not accurately reflect the profit status of investors and market sentiment. Instead, he points out that the metric known as "realized price" is much more meaningful.

According to Van Straten, the realized price represents the average acquisition cost of Bitcoins withdrawn from all exchanges and is used to understand the overall cost basis of the market. The average realized price for the year 2025 is at the level of $93,266. The current price of Bitcoin, which is approximately $105,000, indicates that investors are on average about 12% in profit.

Bitcoin has declined after reaching its peak of $109,000 at the end of January, briefly falling below the realized price of 2025. This situation is historically interpreted as a "capitulation" signal. Van Straten notes that this stress period lasted until April 22, after which Bitcoin regained this critical cost base.

The analyst explains how these types of movements have provided critical signals in terms of market cycles by giving examples from past years:

• 2024: After the approval of the ETF, Bitcoin fell to as low as $49,000 following the decline in Japanese yen carry trade transactions that occurred during the summer after dropping below the average cost basis.
• 2023: Aside from a brief decline during the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March, the price generally remained above the cost base.

Van Straten stated that the large difference between the market price and the realized price during the bull market of 2017 represented excessive speculation, whereas in the bear market of 2018, the price aligned again with this metric. This situation reveals that the realized price acted as a kind of "floor support" in bear markets.

Finally, Van Straten points out that the realized price has continued to rise over time and, from this metric, Bitcoin has not only reached record levels but has also become a mature asset class in the long term. According to the analyst, this situation indicates that the capital commitment to the network has increased and the market has become more structured.

The analyst said, "Instead of focusing on peak prices, it is much more important for investors to monitor the profit situation over the total cost base to understand where Bitcoin is evolving."