Commentary: How to understand Trump's madness? It's just about the votes.

As the creator of "uncertainty", Trump also does not want to face "uncertainty" before next year's midterm elections. This article is from an article written by Alex Yu and reprinted by wublockchain. (Synopsis: Trump suspends tariffs and troubles oolong" bitcoin pin 81,000, U.S. stocks ride roller coasters, Fed May interest rate cut expectations rise sharply) (Background supplement: foreign media revealed that Musk "privately lobbied Trump" to withdraw tariffs but failed, hacked White House trade adviser: brain problems) Last week, at 4 p.m. EST on April 2 (after the US stock market closed), Trump announced his "reciprocal tariff" plan. He divided the main trading partner's physical trade surplus with the United States last year by its total merchandise exports and divided it by two to arrive at a new "reciprocal" tariff rate. Where is the logic? Not important. People just need an excuse to go to war. Then the global market, including crypto assets, was in a bloody storm. The current confusion in the market's expectations of Trump's tariff plan is: Is the tariff increase a long-term national policy of the Trump team, or is it a negotiation strategy used to seek benefits with negotiators (trading partners, large enterprises)? If it is the former, it may be true, as many people say, it will change the global trade situation, and the United States is moving towards isolationism, which is obviously bad for the global economy in the long run. But if it is the latter, then perhaps the moment the so-called "reciprocal tariffs" were promulgated on April 2 was the peak of fear of this round of trade wars, and the subsequent general development direction is still with the advancement of negotiations between many parties, gradually reaching a consensus between the United States and bilateral and multilateral, the panic in the market gradually subsides, and asset prices return to the level they should have. Although Trump previously talked about tariffs during the election campaign and after taking office, he promoted them more as a "national policy", forcing manufacturing to return through tariffs is also a political commitment to the Rust Belt and the voters at the bottom, and his attitude is also unusually resolute. But I still tend to believe that tariffs are just a bargaining chip for him, and the ultimate goal of negotiations is to make enough money for himself, which may include: More overseas orders: Other countries buy more U.S. goods (food, energy, weapons, airliners) More local jobs: large companies come to the U.S. to invest and build factories (TSMC) Reasonable encirclement of competitors: forcing countries trying to ride the wall to join forces with them to further encircle China (Vietnam and South Korea have announced high tariffs on Chinese steel exports today) In addition, the asset collapse and recession expectations brought about by the tariff disturbance have also put great pressure on Powell, who cannot be moved, and Trump cannot get the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates through executive force, what about the collapsing economy and stock market? Therefore, as long as he and his group can withstand the current intense pressure, his reputation will gradually be reversed when seemingly illogical tariff demands are gradually translated into results in negotiations. These gains will translate into the energy to further expand its political influence, justify its further expansion, and help the Republican Party gain an advantage in next year's midterm elections. So is it possible that Trump really regards tariffs as a long-term national policy, believing that tariffs can force the manufacturing industry to return, change the current hollowing out of the US manufacturing industry, and provide more jobs? But the problem is that space and time do not allow it at the moment. With midterm elections for both chambers next year, a recession, a stock market crash, and asset inflation caused by prolonged high tariffs will surely make the Republican Party lose the current weak House of Representatives (and even the Senate), make Trump a "lame president" in the remaining 2 years of his term, and make the policy more difficult to implement. There is not enough time and space for him to pursue such a long-term national policy. If the stock market and tokens will not work next year, he will not be able to talk about long-term national policies, and he will not be able to hold them in the short term. So this possibility is still relatively small. In fact, from the current point of view, less than a week after the launch of the reciprocal tariffs, with the contact with many countries, after the actual negotiation interests have been confirmed, the Trump team has begun to soften the tone of the tariffs. For example, Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, said: "More than 50 countries have contacted the White House to start trade negotiations." President Trump is not trying to destroy the U.S. market by destroying it." Then U.S. trade adviser Navarro spoke: Trump seeks to cut tariff and non-tariff barriers. The old man is a major supporter of tariff policy in the Trump camp, and he has recently lashed out at Musk's free trade stance. So, will there be any surprises in this process? It is also possible. For example, the United States has struggled to negotiate with some of the most important top trade players, especially the European Union and China. At present, the two companies have either countered or threatened to counteract if the negotiations fail (April 13), and Treasury Secretary Bencente warned on the day the "reciprocal tariffs" were announced: do not retaliate, otherwise the United States will increase its weight. Such a scenario could lead to a stalemate in negotiations or even a short-term escalation of the conflict (further raising tariffs on each other), but considering that most other countries will actively negotiate with the United States, the overall situation is unlikely to be worse than it is at present. After all, Trump's core task is still to win more "political achievements" before next year's midterm election, rather than letting high inflation and a crashing stock market ruin the second half of his term. Therefore, it is more beneficial for Trump to "go crazy" earlier and negotiate earlier. As the creator of "uncertainty", Trump also does not want to face "uncertainty" before next year's midterm elections. Related reports Betrayal of Trump" 7 Republican lawmakers defected to support the tariff limitation bill, lawyers are ready to take Trump to court Trump threatens China: If the 34% retaliatory tariff is not withdrawn today, the United States will increase the weight to 50%! Beijing's words: Accompany to the end "Who cares about Taiwan" foreign tweet was choked: Chip overlord you dare to speak? Trump cancels tariffs, the stock market will turn V! How does The Review understand Trump's madness? This article was first published in BlockTempo's "Dynamic Trend - The Most Influential Blockchain News Media".