K33: The overlap of the Golden Week and the U.S. government shutdown may lead to insufficient market Liquidity, facing the risk of abnormal price Fluctuation.

On October 1st, the crypto market research institution K33 Research stated in its latest report that China has begun its National Day Golden Week holiday, while Washington is facing a partial government shutdown. Although light liquidity in the Asian market typically indicates a slow start for the world's largest cryptocurrency this month, the U.S. government shutdown leading to delays in economic data could break this pattern and trigger market fluctuations. K33 data shows that historically, the first week of October usually presents flat or negative returns (although the significant exception was the big pump in 2021), and volatility often compresses to local lows during this period. Analysts pointed out that the Golden Week holiday can only partially explain the phenomenon of thin trading; in reality, the period from August to mid-October has historically been the most stable time for price fluctuations throughout the year. However, the uncertain macro backdrop is becoming more complex - the U.S. federal government entered a partial shutdown at 00:01 Eastern Time on Wednesday, with many non-essential federal services now suspended, workers forced into unpaid leave, and the release of key data on employment and inflation delayed. Lunde warned that combined with potentially thin Asian capital flows, the depth of the order book may deteriorate, exposing traders to the risk of "abnormal price fluctuations" during overlapping trading periods in early October. K33 research director Vetle Lunde stated that Bitcoin is currently still in a consolidation pattern, CME open interest has fallen to a five-month low, the funding rate is hovering below neutral, and options traders still prefer bearish positions. He warned that the high leverage in perpetual futures makes the market vulnerable to spikes in volatility when positions are closed.