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Under the pressure of Fed policies, the short-term pullback risk of Bitcoin increases, while Ethereum performs strongly.
Crypto Assets Market Trends and Analysis
1. Market Overview
Recently, the renovation cost issues at the Federal Reserve headquarters have sparked controversy, with Trump personally visiting the Federal Reserve to pressure Powell and calling for interest rate cuts. Although the idea of firing Powell has been temporarily shelved, White House officials and Republicans continue to use this as a political weapon against Powell, attempting to influence interest rate policy. However, the current financial environment in the U.S. is quite loose, which contradicts Trump's demands for significant interest rate cuts.
Economic data shows that the financial conditions in the United States are extremely loose: the Chicago Federal Reserve's broad financial conditions index has hit a three-year low, the stock market continues to hit new highs, the size of money market funds has reached $7.1 trillion, and household deposits remain high. This flood of liquidity puts the Federal Reserve in a dilemma: inflation is still above target and the labor market is strong, but the government is demanding a significant rate cut citing pressure from Treasury bond issuance, and analysts are concerned that cutting rates at this time may exacerbate the stock market bubble.
In the field of stablecoins, a senior analyst pointed out that the large-scale application of stablecoins will mainly focus on three areas: B2B settlement, Crypto Assets and DeFi ecology, and sovereign financial expansion. He emphasized that stablecoins combined with smart contracts can significantly improve efficiency in cross-border corporate settlements and supply chain finance. In the Crypto ecology, stablecoins have become the core liquidity infrastructure. Moreover, stablecoins anchored to local currencies have the potential to promote the internationalization of local currencies and de-dollarization, which may become an important tool in the future evolution of geopolitical finance.
Regarding Bitcoin, multiple analysts have pointed out short-term pullback risks. The key focus range is in the mid-113,000 USD level, while there is a CME gap between 114,380 USD and 115,635 USD. In the past three days, there has been a cumulative net outflow of 285.2 million USD from spot ETFs, but the bulls have temporarily held the support level of 115,000 USD. If it breaks through 123,218 USD, it may advance towards 135,729 USD and even 150,000 USD; if it falls below 110,530 USD, the bears may take the advantage. In the medium to long term, some analysts have given a buy range of 89,380 USD and a target price of 200,000 USD.
In contrast, Ethereum has shown relatively strong performance. The model indicates that Ethereum has solid support in the range of 2000 to 3000 dollars, with key resistance above at 4500 dollars. In the short term, attention should be paid to the key liquidity price of 3,476 dollars. In the long term, some analysts have set a buying range of 2,200 dollars and a target price of 10,000 dollars. However, there are also warnings that Ethereum may be unstable in the short term, with a risk of correction, and soaring borrowing costs could trigger forced liquidations.
Funds are flowing from Bitcoin into Ethereum and other coins, but a full "altcoin season" has yet to be confirmed. In the NFT space, a listed company acquired a rare CryptoPunk for $5.15 million. Industry insiders predict that CryptoPunks will outperform Ethereum in dollar terms during this cycle. Additionally, it was reported yesterday that an AI version of Vine will be launched, causing the same-named token VINE to surge briefly, although the gains have since retraced.
2. Key Data (As of July 25, 12:00 HKT)
3. ETF Flows (As of July 24)
4. Today's Outlook
Top 100 market cap largest declines today: Pump.fun down 22.4%, dogwifhat down 9.3%, Pudgy Penguins down 8.3%, Fartcoin down 8%, Virtuals Protocol down 6.9%.
5. Hot News