Password Market Weekly Report: Short-term Adjustment After New High, Long-term Upward Trend Remains Unchanged

This week, the cryptocurrency market has been boosted by multiple positive news, with Bitcoin prices hitting a historical high. However, the uncertainty of the global macroeconomic environment has also put some pressure on the market.

Market Overview

Bitcoin broke through its historical high this week, reaching as much as $112,000. This breakthrough is mainly attributed to the continuous inflow of institutional funds and the gradual clarification of the regulatory environment. However, as concerns about U.S. Treasury issues once again trigger market worries, the cryptocurrency market has also experienced a short-term correction.

Nonetheless, from a technical perspective, Bitcoin still maintains a medium-term pump trend. The price is running above the 5-week moving average, the trading volume has increased, and the weekly MACD indicator has just turned positive. These indicators suggest that although there may be adjustments in the short term, the long-term rise trend remains unchanged.

Macroeconomic Impact

The U.S. House of Representatives has passed a comprehensive fiscal bill involving multiple sectors, which may raise the U.S. debt ceiling to $40 trillion. This news has triggered concerns in the market regarding the U.S. government's debt repayment ability, causing the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds to rise again to a high of 4.5%.

As a result, the three major U.S. stock indices all experienced declines this week, and the U.S. dollar index also ended its previous consecutive pump, instead falling by 1.03%. Meanwhile, the price of gold, as a safe-haven asset, rose by 1.98%.

Industry Policy Progress

In terms of regulation, the U.S. Senate passed a procedural vote on the stablecoin regulatory framework with a vote of 66-32, marking an important step for the U.S. in cryptocurrency regulation. The bill clarifies the definition of dollar-pegged stablecoins, regulatory requirements, and underlying asset requirements.

At the same time, the Hong Kong Legislative Council has officially passed the "Stablecoin Regulation Draft", establishing a comprehensive licensing and regulatory framework for fiat-pegged stablecoins. These regulatory advancements are expected to promote the development of stablecoins and the entire blockchain industry.

Capital Flow Analysis

Despite the weak performance of traditional financial markets, the cryptocurrency market has still maintained a strong influx of funds. This week, a total of $5.574 billion flowed into the market, with Bitcoin spot ETFs attracting $2.775 billion, stablecoins seeing an influx of $2.548 billion, and Ethereum spot ETFs attracting $250 million.

Market Sentiment and Outlook

Although the price of Bitcoin has reached a new high, there are also some cautious signals in the market. Long-term holders have started to slightly reduce their holdings, with the number of Bitcoins flowing into exchanges this week reaching 159869.37, which may indicate some adjustment pressure in the short term.

However, from an overall perspective, the Bitcoin reserves of centralized exchanges are still decreasing, currently down to 2,987,307 coins, which indicates that long-term holders remain optimistic.

According to the EMC BTC Cycle Metrics indicator of eMerge Engine, the current value is 0.75, which is in a rise period, further supporting the judgment that Bitcoin's long-term trend is positive.

Overall, although there may be some volatility in the short term, the long-term rise trend of Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market remains unchanged. Investors should closely monitor changes in the global macroeconomic situation and regulatory policies, and manage risks appropriately.