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The Fed will hold a highly anticipated policy meeting this week, where it is expected to maintain the interest rate. However, internal divisions over the future direction of monetary policy are intensifying. Some officials advocate keeping the current interest rate level, while others lean towards considering a rate cut in the fall to support the gradually slowing labor market.
This debate could become one of the most intense internal discussions at the Fed in 32 years. Fed Chairman Powell faces pressure from multiple fronts, including calls to lower borrowing costs. However, most policymakers seem to be waiting for more economic data, particularly the impact of tariffs on consumer prices, before making further decisions.
Wells Fargo senior economist Sarah House pointed out that although this meeting is not expected to change the Intrerest Rate, the policy path may be at a turning point. The majority of committee members remain vigilant about potential inflation risks, which may influence their decisions.
The market generally expects a rate cut at the September meeting, and investors will closely follow the statements after the meeting and Powell's press conference for any clues supporting this view. At the same time, several important economic data will be released this week, including the highly anticipated monthly non-farm payroll report, which will provide important references for assessing the economic situation and future policy direction.
Economists expect that hiring activity may slow down in July due to the ongoing uncertainty surrounding trade policy. This trend will have significant implications for the Fed's decision-making and may become one of the key factors supporting interest rate cuts.
As economic data is released and policy debates deepen, the market will closely follow every move of the Fed to predict the future direction of monetary policy and its potential impact on the economy.