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- 📢 Gate Square #Creator Campaign Phase 2# is officially live!
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The easing of geopolitical tensions and the Fed's dovish stance bring multiple Favourable Information to the crypto market.
Market Observation: Easing geopolitical tensions combined with a dovish stance from the Fed brings favourable information to the crypto market.
The macro environment is showing a positive shift. The news of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran significantly alleviates geopolitical tensions, boosting market risk appetite, with crude oil prices retreating to pre-conflict levels and gold briefly falling below the $3,300 mark. In this context, Fed Chairman Powell released key signals during a congressional hearing: while he did not explicitly rule out the possibility of a rate cut in July, he emphasized the need for more data to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation, suggesting that it is more likely to wait for the September meeting to decide on a policy shift. He admitted that if inflation pressures are controlled, there would be 'earlier rather than later rate cuts,' but stressed that the current strong economy does not require hasty action, also pointing out that tariff uncertainty is the main reason for delaying rate cuts. This statement was interpreted by the market as dovish, combined with the easing of geopolitical risks, leading to a broad rally in U.S. stocks—Nasdaq 100 reached an all-time high, the Dow jumped 500 points in a single day, and U.S. Treasury yields fell in sync with the dollar.
In terms of regulation, a certain crypto trading platform is seeking approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ( SEC ) to launch tokenized stock trading services. Tokenized stocks can achieve T+0 settlement, low thresholds, lower costs, and around-the-clock trading. If the plan is approved, the platform will enter the stock trading field using blockchain technology, further blurring the lines between traditional brokers and crypto platforms, challenging the position of traditional online brokers. Moreover, the new management of the SEC has shown a change in its regulatory attitude towards the crypto industry, not only withdrawing lawsuits against multiple crypto companies but also establishing a crypto task force to formulate regulations for digital assets. Industry experts believe that the U.S. may gradually accept tokenized stock services in the future, paving the way for the application of blockchain technology in traditional stock trading while providing investors with more diversified and flexible trading options.
Bitcoin has broken through $106,000 under macro Favourable Information, but its performance is relatively restrained. Some analysts indicate that the 13% increase in Bitcoin from the beginning of the year contrasts with over $63 billion in funds flowing in, reflecting the market's caution towards structural changes. It has been observed that the chip concentration within a 5% range of the current Bitcoin spot price has reached 14.5%. If the concentration breaks through 15%, the market may experience significant fluctuations. From a technical analysis perspective, several analysts have provided similar predictions for Bitcoin's short-term trend, suggesting that the price may consolidate at current levels; if it breaks through $107,000, it could aim for $110,000, otherwise, it may retreat below $102,000.
Regarding Ethereum, a trading platform experienced a large-scale fund withdrawal on June 23, with over 4,000 BTC and 61,000 ETH leaving the platform. This indicates that trader sentiment may be shifting from short-term speculation to long-term holding strategies. Analysts point out that as the funds rotate from Bitcoin to Ethereum, ETH may see a significant rise, as its profit supply ratio is far lower than that of Bitcoin, indicating a potential for catch-up growth. Another analyst noted that ETH is quickly approaching $2,500, with a significant increase in buying interest, and a dragonfly doji reversal signal has appeared. However, there are also views that the ETH price has failed to break through $3,000 for over 20 weeks, which has damaged market confidence and faced fierce competition from other public chains, making it difficult to return to levels above $3,000 in the short term.
In the market, interactions between an official public chain and well-known community figures have sparked a new Meme coin craze, with the market capitalization of related tokens quickly rising and then falling. Another token claimed to be developed by an artificial intelligence foundation has also attracted substantial funding with the concept of "cross Web2 and Web3 smart agents". Additionally, a Meme coin originating from a popular online video briefly caught the market's attention.
Traditional financial institutions are accelerating their moves into the encryption sector. The U.S. company Nano Labs announced the acquisition of a certain cryptocurrency as a strategic reserve through a $500 million convertible bond, leading to a single-day surge of 150% in its stock price. Meanwhile, the Hong Kong market has seen breakthrough progress, with Guotai Junan International obtaining a comprehensive virtual asset license, becoming the first Chinese-funded brokerage able to offer mainstream coin trading services. This news spurred its Hong Kong stock price to a maximum intraday increase of over 100%, also driving its associated company Huamao Co., Ltd. to rise more than 8% at one point.
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