Tariff policy impacts the crypto world: Is the battle to defend the 100,000 BTC threshold starting?

Washington's imposition of tariffs on Chinese new energy vehicles has caused Bitcoin to plummet by 8% in a short period, and the $100,000 defense line is actually facing severe challenges. This policy storm has triggered a liquidity crisis in the crypto world.

1. Tariff shocks directly hit the crypto world.

On-chain data shows that in the past 24 hours:

- The market value of stablecoins decreased by 1.2 billion USD, with USDT/USDC accounting for 83%.
- Centralized exchanges net outflow of 42,000 BTC
- The amount of leveraged liquidation exceeds 380 million USD.

Policy risks in traditional markets affect cryptocurrencies through three avenues:

1. Liquidity siphoning effect: Institutional funds accelerate withdrawal from risk assets
2. Deteriorating Regulatory Expectations: The SEC Seizes the Opportunity to Expand the Scope of Crypto Regulation
3. Market sentiment contagion: The VIX fear index rises in conjunction with crypto volatility.

2. Historical Scene Reproduction

Event: 2022 LUNA Crash, This Tariff Crisis
Initial impact amplitude -45% -18% (current)
Settlement peak of 2.6 billion USD and 380 million USD
Recovery cycle 196 days to observe

It is important to be vigilant, as the current open interest in the derivatives market is 230% higher than before the LUNA incident, and the potential risk of cascading liquidations may be underestimated.

3. The Game Between Miners and Institutions

An abnormal signal has occurred:

- The miner's position index has dropped to 0.48, the lowest in nearly two years.
- Grayscale GBTC had a net redemption of 12,000 BTC in a single day.
- Tether Treasury issued 800 million USDT in a single day to stabilize the market.

Long and short positions competition situation:
✅ Bullish Advantage:

- The spot ETF has seen a net inflow of funds for 17 consecutive weeks.
- The supply gap increases after the Bitcoin halving.
❌ Shorting methods:
- The expectation of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve has increased.
- Global risk assets are falling synchronously.

4. Survival Strategies: 3 Key Methods to Weather the Storm

1. Liquidity management: Maintain 30% stablecoin reserves, with leverage not exceeding 3 times.
2. On-chain monitoring: Focus on miner address changes and the net inflow situation of exchanges.
3. Policy hedging: Allocate compliant BTC/ETH spot, stay away from high-volatility altcoins.

Historical experience shows that when the correlation between traditional financial markets and cryptocurrencies exceeds 0.72 (data from 2025), any policy risk may trigger cross-market chain reactions. Investors need to respect market chain effects and take precautions against risks. #PFVS Launchpad 认购开启# #ETH突破2700美元# #4月CPI数据公布#