Golden Finance reports that 10x Research published on the X platform, stating that Bitcoin is once again at the intersection of Fed policy, dollar trends, and a liquidity narrative that is far more complex than most investors imagine. Although the probability of a rate cut in December has risen to 84%, history shows that the key is not the rate cut itself, but the subsequent policy statements.
At the same time, a rarely triggered dollar indicator has just lit up, marking only the fifth time in Bitcoin's history, and its past results are not reassuring. Many pointed out that the Treasury General Account (TGA) could release over $600 billion in liquidity, but the last time a similar situation occurred, Bitcoin still saw a significant drop and reacted much later.
After several Fed officials expressed support for a rate cut on December 10, the Treasury futures market has raised the implied probability of a rate cut to 84%, while also considering January.