Gate News 消息,3 月 29 日,北京师范大学经济学教授万喆就中东冲突对油价影响发表看法。万喆指出,霍尔木兹海峡(全球最重要的石油运输通道之一)关闭造成的供应缺口可能占全球供应的 15% 至 20%,地缘不确定性高于历史上局部战争时期,冲突外溢风险仍在升级。关于油价走势,万喆表示,若冲突维持当前烈度、霍尔木兹海峡持续关闭、胡塞武装持续袭扰曼德海峡(红海南端关键航道)但未全面封锁,且无重大外交突破,油价将维持在 100 美元以上;若曼德海峡被封锁、两大核心通道同时中断、冲突扩大到更多国家,油价将继续冲高;若出现重大外交突破、霍尔木兹海峡恢复通航,油价可能快速回落至 100 美元以下。(央视)
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