XRP Today News: Whale dumps 180 million keeping price low by creating resistance, ETF support testing 2.35 USD

XRP has strengthened due to continuous ETF fund inflows for eight days, enhancing demand, but whale selling has suppressed the recent upward momentum. Since its launch, XRP Spot ETF issuers have recorded a cumulative net inflow of $622.11 million. However, whales have dumped over 180 million tokens within 72 hours. Market expectations for the Federal Reserve (FED) to lower interest rates in December are heating up, bullish for XRP to challenge the resistance level of $2.35.

XRP ETF has attracted 620 million USD for 8 consecutive days, setting a record

The most important positive news for XRP today is the sustainability of the ETF capital inflow. Since its launch, XRP Spot ETF issuers have accumulated a net inflow of $622.11 million, which is an unprecedented scale among altcoin ETFs. In comparison, the Dogecoin ETF had a trading volume of only $1.4 million on its first day, and the performance of the Ethereum ETF in its early stages was also far behind that of XRP.

During the week of November 25, the XRP Spot ETF reported a net inflow of $35.41 million, a significant drop from the previous day's $164.04 million. This decline has raised concerns about sustainability. The pattern of ETF fund inflows is often characterized by explosive inflows during the initial launch phase due to novelty and FOMO, followed by a gradual return to normalcy. The sharp drop from $164 million to $35.41 million, a decrease of 78%, necessitates observation to determine whether this is a temporary correction or a trend slowdown.

It is worth noting that the inflows into the Franklin XRP ETF (XRPZ) have not reflected Franklin Templeton's significant position in the ETF space, with demand falling below market expectations. This ETF issuer, ranked 19th in terms of assets under management, reported a net inflow of $69.72 million for XRPZ. In contrast, XRPZ lags behind the Canary XRP ETF (XRPC), which has accumulated a net inflow of $329.39 million since its launch on November 14. XRPC achieved a net inflow of $243.05 million on its first day, highlighting its first-mover advantage.

According to data from VettaFi, Canary Capital ranks 153rd in the ETF issuer assets under management (AUM) leaderboard, with an AUM of $349.25 million. Notably, since the launch of XRPC, the ranking of this ETF issuer has risen from 238th. This ranking leap shows the strategic importance of the XRP ETF to Canary, as this product constitutes almost all of its AUM.

XRP ETF Fund Flow Analysis

Cumulative inflow: 622.11 million USD (continuous inflow for 8 days)

Canary XRPC: 329.39 million USD (first day 243 million, accounting for 52.9%)

Franklin XRPZ: $69.72 million (below expectations)

November 25: $35.41 million (a sharp drop of 78% compared to the previous day)

Whale sells 180 million coins in 72 hours to suppress pump

The biggest negative news for XRP today is the Whale dumping. According to reports, the Whale dumped over 180 million Tokens within 72 hours. At the current price of $2.22, 180 million XRP is worth about $400 million. Such a scale of dumping puts huge pressure on the market, and even with ETF funds inflow support, it is difficult to fully absorb.

The motivations for whale dumping can vary. One is profit-taking, as XRP rebounded from a low of $1.8 in October to a high of $2.69, an increase of about 50%, and early investors may choose to take profits at high levels. Two is pessimism about the market outlook; if whales believe that XRP is unlikely to break through $3 in the short term, they may choose to exit early. Three is funding needs; some whales may be forced to sell due to other investment opportunities or liquidity needs.

This selling pressure has suppressed the recent upward momentum. Although XRP rose 0.97% on Wednesday, it underperformed compared to BTC (3.60%) and the overall market (2.83%). Data from market intelligence platform Santiment shows that the average return for active wallets over the past 30 days is: BTC: -6.1% (slightly undervalued); XRP: -4.7% (very slightly undervalued). This means that short-term holders are still in a loss position, and once the price rebounds near their cost line, it may trigger a new wave of dumping.

2.35 USD acts as a key breakout level

(Source: Trading View)

The technical focus of today's XRP news is the resistance level at $2.35. On Wednesday, November 26, XRP closed at $2.2231, still below the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMA), indicating a bearish tendency. The resistance level for the 50-day moving average is at $2.3713, and the resistance level for the 200-day moving average is at $2.5218.

Key technical levels to pay attention to include: support levels at $2.2, $2, $1.9112, and $1.8205; resistance levels at $2.35, $2.5, $2.62, $2.8, $3.0, and $3.66. If the price breaks through the November 24 high of $2.2872, it may open the door to test the $2.35 resistance level and the 50-day moving average. If the price continues to break through the 50-day moving average, it may open the door to test the upward trend line, with the next key resistance level at $2.5.

In a bearish scenario, if the XRP Spot ETF reports net outflows, the U.S. Senate obstructs legislation favorable to cryptocurrencies, or Ripple's application for a U.S. chartered bank license is rejected, it could lead to a drop in the XRP price to $2.2. A break below $2.2 would put the psychological support level of $2.0 to the test.

In a bullish scenario, if the XRP Spot ETF report shows strong capital inflows, blue-chip companies will use XRP as a treasury reserve asset, and Ripple obtains a U.S. chartered banking license, it could drive XRP to challenge the 3-dollar mark. However, avoiding a drop below the downtrend line is crucial for a sustained recovery. The next 72 hours may determine whether XRP will decouple from BTC and return to 3.0 dollars.

The Federal Reserve (FED) interest rate cut expectations and Ripple bank license

Market expectations for a rate cut by The Federal Reserve (FED) in December are rising, boosting sentiment in the cryptocurrency market and aligning XRP with the overall market trend. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a rate cut in December is 84.7%. The U.S. employment data released on Wednesday, November 26, showed that the number of initial jobless claims fell to 216,000, indicating a strong labor market, but it did not affect market expectations for a rate cut.

The policies of the Federal Reserve (FED), the flow of funds into ETFs, and Ripple's application for a U.S. banking license may determine whether XRP will test the $3 level again. Ripple's application for a U.S. chartered banking license is an important fundamental factor in today's news about XRP. If approved, Ripple will become the first cryptocurrency company to obtain a U.S. banking license, significantly enhancing its competitiveness and compliance in the cross-border payment market, which would be a long-term positive for the price of XRP.

The progress of the Market Structure Bill is also worth noting. This bill aims to establish a clear regulatory framework for crypto assets, and if passed, it will provide legal certainty for crypto assets such as XRP. Traders should continue to closely monitor the progress of the Market Structure Bill on Capitol Hill, as it is another key price catalyst.