Why did Bitcoin fall today? ETF saw an outflow of 860 million in a single day, dropping below the price at the beginning of the year.

The reason for Bitcoin's fall today has become the focus of the market. On Sunday, Bitcoin dropped to a low of $93,029, breaking below the year-to-date price of $93,507, down 25% from the historical high in October. On November 13, the Bitcoin Spot ETF recorded a net outflow of $866.7 million, the second largest single-day redemption since the fund's launch in January 2024, reflecting a three-week phase of de-risking.

The Second Largest ETF Redemption Wave in History Triggers Sell-off

(Source: Farside Investor)

The net outflow of $866.7 million on November 13 surpassed the previous record of $812.3 million set on August 1, making it the second highest in history. The $1.1 billion redemption wave on February 25 remains the most severe single-day redemption in history. According to data from Farside Investors, Grayscale’s Bitcoin Mini Trust led the withdrawals on November 13 with approximately $318 million, followed by BlackRock’s IBIT at $257 million. Fidelity's FBTC and Bitwise's BITB contributed additional redemption volume among the 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs listed in the U.S.

This large-scale redemption directly addresses the core question of why Bitcoin fell today: institutional investors are quickly withdrawing. The outflow of funds reflects a three-week de-risking phase, with total withdrawals from Bitcoin ETFs amounting to approximately $2.6 billion. Despite three consecutive weeks of outflows, the total assets under management of Bitcoin ETFs still exceed $80 billion. The $2.6 billion redemption accounts for about 3% of total holdings, which aligns with periodic rebalancing during times of increased macroeconomic uncertainty and profit-taking after record highs.

Bitcoin once again fell below the $100,000 mark on the same day, with a decline of nearly 2%. The downward trend intensified on November 14, and as of the time of this report, the price of Bitcoin has dropped to $94,890.52, a decrease of 4.8% within 24 hours. Since early May 2025, Bitcoin has not touched the $94,000 range. This withdrawal pattern aligns with historical behavior during times of heightened risk aversion. In October, when the price of Bitcoin was $126,000, ETF holders (especially those who purchased at the time of the ETF launch) had unrealized gains exceeding 100%. The subsequent decline brought natural pressure to realize profits.

Macroeconomic uncertainty triggers a de-risking wave

The redemption wave coincided with the end of the U.S. government's record-long shutdown, which led the market to lower expectations of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December. Although the U.S. government reopened the economy on Thursday, which is expected to bring much-needed relief to the market, the cryptocurrency market suffered a crash over the weekend, causing Bitcoin to erase all its gains for the year at one point. This is a key macro factor explaining why Bitcoin fell today.

The market expects liquidity to tighten, prompting investors to shift from assets with high beta coefficients like Bitcoin to cash, bonds, and gold. This year, U.S. President Donald Trump was inaugurated on January 20, forming the most crypto-friendly government to date and fulfilling most of his promises, leading to expectations of a strong year for the cryptocurrency market. Under the regulatory push of the Trump administration, the use of corporate Bitcoin funds has seen explosive growth, and the inflow of funds into Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds has also increased significantly.

However, Trump's tariff pressures and the U.S. government shutdown (which ended on Thursday after a record 43 days) have led to multiple double-digit pullbacks in Bitcoin prices this year. This policy uncertainty is a significant external factor for why Bitcoin is falling today. Although this year has seen mostly positive industry developments from businesses and government, the latest crash in Bitcoin has still caused it to drop below the $93,507 price it had at the beginning of the year.

Dual Pressure from Derivatives Liquidation and Whale Sell-off

The derivative positions have intensified the selling pressure. After Bitcoin rebounded to around 126,000 USD in October, the futures long positions have accumulated significantly. When the spot price fell below 100,000 USD, the market experienced large-scale liquidations, with the total liquidation of Bitcoin long positions amounting to about 19 million USD, and the total liquidation of crypto assets exceeding 30 million USD. These forced sell-offs triggered additional ETF redemptions as institutional risk limits were activated.

Another key catalyst for the sharp fall in Bitcoin prices is that senior Bitcoin holders and whales have sold off part of their holdings, which has compressed the upward space even though the industry is developing well. This is an indispensable supply-side factor in understanding why Bitcoin has fallen today. However, Glassnode analysts stated last week that the notion of “the old man selling Bitcoin” is not as strong as people imagine, explaining that this is “normal bull market behavior,” especially in the later stages of a bull market.

“This steady rise reflects the increasing distribution pressure from the old investor group — a typical pattern of profit-taking at the end of a cycle, rather than a sudden withdrawal of whales.” This analysis offers a more balanced perspective, indicating that the current sell-off may be a healthy market adjustment rather than a panic collapse.

Capital rotation to new ETF intensifies outflow

The capital rotation model has also made the flow of funds more complex. The first U.S. Spot XRP ETF was listed on November 13, with an inflow of about $250 million, while the Solana ETF attracted a small amount of capital. Similar to Bitcoin funds, Ethereum products also experienced capital outflows. This dynamic indicates that some investors are taking profits from their Bitcoin positions and reallocating risk to other cryptocurrency areas, although the outflow of $866 million far exceeds the inflow of funds on any other day.

This kind of capital rotation is another dimension to answer why Bitcoin is falling today. Bitcoin is not an isolated case; Ethereum at $3,119 and Solana at $138.15 have dropped 7.95% and 28.3% respectively compared to early 2025, with most altcoins experiencing an even greater impact. The systemic decline across the entire crypto market indicates that this is not just a problem unique to Bitcoin, but a reflection of the overall risk assets facing a sell-off.

Technical Analysis and Future Outlook

On November 17, Bitcoin tested the support level of $94,000, placing it at a technically critical juncture. The price of $94,890.52 represents a 25% fall from the October high, also marking the lowest level since early May. The data point from November 13 reflects a crowded position configuration alongside deteriorating market sentiment, a situation that historically often indicates that the market will hit a bottom or enter a prolonged consolidation phase.

Five Core Reasons Why Bitcoin is Falling Today

ETF Large-Scale Redemption: On November 13, a single-day outflow of 866.7 million dollars, with a total of 2.6 billion dollars over three weeks.

Macroeconomic Uncertainty: The U.S. government shutdown and reduced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have triggered a risk-off sentiment.

Trump's Tariff Policy Impact: Uncertainty in trade policy undermines confidence in risk assets

Derivatives Liquidation Chain Reaction: $190 million long liquidation triggered forced sell-offs

Whale Profit Taking: Seasoned holders normally distribute pressure after a high point.

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan believes that Bitcoin will experience explosive growth in 2026, attributing this to the theory of “devaluation trading” taking effect. “I think its fundamentals are very solid, and I feel these targets are too large to be suppressed. So I believe 2026 will be a good year.”