The standstill is over, and the flood is coming: After 43 days of "information vacuum," how will the backlog of data impact the market?

Author: Frank, MSX Research Institute

43 days, the longest government shutdown in American history.

On the evening of November 12, Eastern Time, after the U.S. House of Representatives voted to pass a temporary funding bill for the federal government, Trump also signed it, declaring a phase of this political drama to be over. According to estimates from the U.S. Congressional Budget Office, a six-week shutdown could reduce U.S. GDP by 1.5 percentage points, resulting in a net loss of about $11 billion.

Source: White House Official Website

But a more hidden and tricky problem has emerged: the shutdown has disrupted the U.S. statistical system, causing a significant absence of key economic data that should have been released daily, weekly, and monthly, from employment to inflation, from GDP to retail. This is especially true for core employment data such as non-farm payrolls, which is a key basis for the Federal Reserve to formulate monetary policy and directly influences decisions on major measures like interest rate cuts.

Now that the government has reopened, agencies such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) are “making up for lost time,” and the delayed economic data may be released intensively in the coming weeks. This also means that after a month-long information vacuum, investors are about to face a rare “data deluge.”

The end of the standstill is merely a political conclusion; for the market, the real test lies in the coming month, including the forced repricing of the economy, inflation, and interest rate pathways in a very short time, which will also determine the pricing logic of U.S. stocks, gold, Crypto, and even the entire global assets for the near future.

1. 43 Days of 'Data Blind Flying', What Has the Market Lost?

Mass flight delays, interruptions in food assistance programs, public services coming to a standstill, hundreds of thousands of federal employees being forced to take unpaid leave… It can be said that for the past 43 days, the shutdown has permeated all aspects of the American economy and people's livelihoods.

But for the global financial market, the greatest shock encountered is a more covert and dangerous state, that is, the market has lost its “eye to judge the economic situation.”

It should be noted that the government can shut down, but the economy will not come to a complete stop, and it continues to operate every day. For example, businesses hire employees, consumers shop, factories produce, prices fluctuate, and exports and imports vary. However, the agencies responsible for recording, summarizing, and publishing these changes also enter a pause during the shutdown.

From the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) of the Department of Commerce, and to the data statistical team of the Department of the Treasury, almost all federal agencies responsible for releasing core macroeconomic indicators have suspended operations due to the shutdown.

In a market without data, one can only rely on guesswork. The last available federal official employment data before the halt shows an unemployment rate of 4.3% in August and an addition of 22,000 jobs, continuing the trend of slowing job creation quarter by quarter. Subsequently, all core data for September and October that were supposed to be released have completely disappeared from the schedule.

According to statistics from the MSX Research Institute, during the period from October 1 to November 13, at least 12 core macro indicators failed to be released as scheduled due to the U.S. government shutdown, covering the three pillars of employment, inflation, and GDP/growth, including all key indicators such as non-farm employment, unemployment rate, CPI, PPI, retail sales, trade balance, industrial output, PCE, and GDP preliminary value.

Some of the data can still be compensated, such as the September non-farm payroll data that was supposed to be released on October 3. The data collection has been completed, but due to the shutdown interrupting the process, it is likely to be released once the government restarts.

The more serious issue is actually another part of the data that may be “permanently lost,” such as the October non-farm payroll and unemployment rate, which cannot be collected throughout October and may be absent forever: White House Press Secretary Levitt recently stated that due to the prolonged closure of federal agencies, two important reports on October inflation and employment “are very likely never to be” released.

This also means that September and October 2025 may become a rare “statistical blind spot” in the series of U.S. macro data.

The only exception is that the CPI report for September was released on October 24, nine days late, as an exception for the adjustment of social security funds, becoming the only “observation window” during the entire suspension period and currently the only officially permitted economic data to be published.

However, this has not alleviated the market's “data hunger”. More problematically, even though the standstill has ended, there is still no timeline for when federal agencies will be able to catch up, the White House has refused to provide a clear schedule, and the BLS has not yet announced a plan for back pay, leaving the market in a semi-blind state.

2. From 'Information Vacuum' to 'Data Tsunami'

However, regardless, the government is reopening, and various agencies will inevitably need to process the backlog of important economic reports and start working hard to “catch up.”

This is also why, in the coming month, the schedule for the release of U.S. economic data will see an unprecedented density of releases. The 43-day information vacuum will not end gently; instead, significant uncertainty and volatility will be concentrated and released in a very short time.

According to projections from institutions such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, the key economic data “makeup” calendar for the next month will be extremely terrifying, potentially marking the most crowded, chaotic, and impactful macro data intensive period in U.S. statistical history.

From this calendar, we can see two clear “eyes of the storm.”

First, the initial shock comes from the backlog data in September.

The Wall Street Journal and Goldman Sachs both pointed out that, since the data collection for the September employment report was completed before the shutdown, it is expected that the BLS will quickly release it after resuming operations (as early as next week).

However, Goldman Sachs has a more aggressive prediction, that the non-farm payroll for September (11.18) and October (11.19, if it can be released) may bombard the market back-to-back for two consecutive days.

If this situation comes true, the market will face an extremely awkward yet potentially real scenario: investors will have to digest two months of employment reports within 24 hours, which may have completely different directions. It is important to note that non-farm payrolls are one of the most sensitive macroeconomic data in the entire market, and two reports exploding simultaneously may directly reshape expectations for the economy and the Federal Reserve's path in 2025.

Secondly, the second shock point comes from the “black hole” and “serious delays” in the October data.

In simple terms, compared to the easy resumption in September, October is the eye of the storm. After all, this shutdown covered the entire month of October, with data collection delays far exceeding those of 2013 (16 days) and 2019 (35 days). According to Morgan Stanley's estimates, key inflation data for October, such as retail sales, PPI, and CPI, may not be released until December 18th or 19th.

What does this mean?

This means that during the monetary policy meeting on December 9-10, when Federal Reserve decision-makers are formulating the interest rate path for 2026, they themselves will not see more critical inflation data from October.

In summary, this “remedial” calendar is less about returning to normal and more like a “volatility map.” The market will, together with the Federal Reserve, once again fall into a new blind spot caused by a “data deluge” from the old blind spot of the “information vacuum,” and be forced to continuously digest potentially contradictory data in a very short period of time.

In the coming month, the intense fluctuations in the market have almost become a foregone conclusion.

3. What impacts may arise?

Overall, for the market, the “sigh of relief” brought by the end of the standstill is only a temporary emotional adjustment. What truly determines the market trend is how the concentrated release of this “data surge” will reshape investors' expectations regarding the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve's policy path.

Under this premise, a fact that must be heeded is: This round of suspension not only leads to data omissions but may also result in data distortion. After all, the data for the October employment report has never been collected, and some important parts of the data for the November report should have been collected in the early part of the month, but could not be guaranteed.

Therefore, all data released in the upcoming month will not only be delayed but may also carry biases, making it significantly more difficult for the market to interpret.

In this situation, the market is likely to experience three distinctly different scenarios while digesting the data surge, each of which will directly reshape the direction of risk assets:

• “Stagflation” Alert: If the revised September non-farm payrolls, Q3 GDP, and September PCE data are all “overheating”, indicating persistent inflation and a strong economy, then the market will undoubtedly quickly reprice for a “more hawkish Fed”, significantly pushing back interest rate cut expectations, which would lead to a surge in the USD / US Treasury yields, putting pressure on QQQ (tech stocks) and Crypto as risk assets;
• “Recession” Panic: If the backlog data (especially non-farm) shows that the job market suddenly stalls and Q3 GDP falls far short of expectations, the market will quickly shift to “recession trades,” betting on an emergency rate cut by the Federal Reserve. This would mean a sharp drop in the dollar / US Treasury yields, and QQQ and Crypto may experience a short-term pulse rebound due to the notion that “bad news is good news.”
• “Data Clash”: If the data from September and October are completely opposite (for example, September is very hot, October is very cold), or if employment and inflation data contradict each other, the market will fall into cognitive confusion, volatility will peak, and a sharp fluctuation in the prices of various risk assets (V-shaped reversals, W-shaped reversals) cannot be ruled out. This is also the scenario that is most likely to occur in this round and is the most difficult to cope with.

However, in any case, from the perspective of statistical rhythm, barring any surprises, by early January next year, the employment and inflation chain in the United States will essentially be restored to integrity, and we will have a fairly clear understanding of the job market situation. By then, the economic conditions of the fourth quarter may also be truly presented.

Of course, all of this is predicated on the fact that there won't be another government shutdown during this time… The uncertainty of American politics means that the “pause button” could be pressed again at any time in the future.

Written at the end

For Washington, the end of the shutdown is a temporary conclusion to a political game, while for the market, it marks the end of a halftime break—over the coming weeks, the economic realities that have accumulated over 43 days will double back, and the second half of the game will be forced to play at “fast forward.”

For investors holding cash ready to enter the market, or traders closely watching the Federal Reserve, the real game has just begun.