Faker wins the championship and earns 2.9 million! League of Legends players achieve greatness in the prediction market.

The League of Legends S15 World Championship has concluded, with Faker leading T1 to their 6th championship. In the Polymarket prediction market, a player who calls himself “fengdubiying” placed a bet of about 1.58 million USD on T1 to win against KT in the finals, ultimately earning a profit of about 820,000 USD. His total profit has exceeded 2.9 million USD.

From 30,000 to 2.9 million: The legendary journey behind Faker's championship victory

(Source: Polymarket)

“fengdubiying” accepted an interview with Rhythm BlockBeats, sharing his legendary journey. “I always bet on things that I am confident about, this has been my strategy since I entered the cryptocurrency circle.” Believing in his own understanding and betting large positions on what he perceives as high certainty events has been his successful strategy. During last year's Solana meme market, he achieved a single coin A8 (tens of millions in profit) on moodeng.

This strategy sounds simple, but it requires a strong heart and confidence. Behind each brilliant moment of victory, there are naturally times of loneliness and disappointment. As he wrote on X, his address on Hyperliquid reached a peak profit of 9 million dollars, not only avoiding the big drop on October 11, but also making 2.8 million dollars through short positions. However, the subsequent collapse of liquidity caused his subsequent trades to continuously fail, leading to a reversal of profits.

But, as the saying goes, “a loss may turn out to be a blessing in disguise.” The loss in the contract market allowed him to profit from betting on Polymarket that Bitcoin would drop below $105,000. Although it wasn't much, it increased from $13,000 to $30,000, which marked the beginning of his legendary journey on Polymarket. Previously, when Trump was elected as the President of the United States, he had already learned about Polymarket and prediction markets, but due to his lack of interest in political predictions and feeling uncertain, he chose not to participate.

Then, the opportunity came - the League of Legends S15 World Championship. Faker is undoubtedly the king of League of Legends, and on Polymarket, “fengdubiying” was crowned with his strong mentality. In this legendary journey, only player Chovy ever posed a threat to him. In the semifinals where KT faced Gen.G, he bet over $400,000 on Gen.G, but Chovy's performance in the match left him speechless. When Gen.G was trailing 1:2, he helplessly yet decisively cleared his position betting on Gen.G to win and shifted to betting on KT. This move made him lose only $20,000 on that single bet.

People who understand the game may not necessarily play it: the logic of cognitive monetization

When asked about his gaming rank, he humorously replied, “Actually, I haven't played in a long time. Back in school, I reached Diamond, but as I've gotten older, I can't keep up anymore. Just because someone understands the game doesn't mean they can necessarily play it well.” Although he no longer charges into the Summoner's Rift with a mouse in hand like in his student days, he never misses the annual S tournament and always makes his own predictions about the results, achieving a decent win rate.

When asked if he would engage in arbitrage by buying low and selling high based on the fluctuations in player mentality caused by the changing dynamics of the matches, he stated that he would not: “After entering the knockout stage, the strength gap between teams is smaller, and the situation changes rapidly. If a team is in poor form and already at a disadvantage, they can easily be swept away in one go; at that point, there is actually no room for arbitrage. Betting on Polymarket and opening contracts is essentially the same principle; nothing is guaranteed to win, it can only be said that one stands on the side with a higher probability.”

This passage reveals the core of his investment philosophy: not to pursue absolute certainty, but to stand on the side of higher probabilities. This way of thinking is akin to that of professional traders; successful trading is not about being right every time, but about having the win rate and profit-loss ratio on your side in the long run. The success of Faker's championship prediction was not due to luck, but based on years of observation and understanding of League of Legends tournaments.

In the view of “fengdubiying”, there is a fundamental difference between prediction markets and traditional entertainment: “The distinction between the two is very significant. It's like baccarat and Texas hold 'em; baccarat is a game against the dealer, while Texas hold 'em is a competition between players. In prediction markets, each prediction is a battle between players, relying on their own understanding and strategies. If you are playing against the dealer, you are destined to lose.” He believes that prediction markets are a variant of trading markets, with limit prices and market prices for orders, collecting some fees like in contract markets.

The Liquidity Dilemma and Future Outlook of the Prediction Market

(Source: Polymarket)

In terms of liquidity, “fengdubiying” believes that there are still many areas for improvement in the current prediction market. “This year I transitioned to the Bitcoin futures market because other tracks in the market are not able to accommodate the depth of my positions. If a track or market does not have sufficient liquidity, then I end up just sending money to others. Once players reach a certain capital scale, they will clearly feel the limitations of each market in terms of liquidity.”

In his view, the current situation of Polymarket is similar to when the meme market first emerged, with low liquidity. Apart from world-class sporting events and global political and economic topics, the liquidity of many other subjects is very low, which leaves whales with few options for prediction market participation. He personally experienced the issue of insufficient depth during the betting process in the S market: “If you go for a higher position to bet, it is quite difficult to buy low and sell high, as well as to take profits and cut losses. When T1 was trailing at 1:2, I looked at the order book, and if I wanted to cut losses at that time, there were only over $100,000 in orders on the order book.”

He believes that there are many whales much larger than him, and if we want to attract these whales to play in the prediction market, we definitely need better liquidity. If the prediction market can introduce market makers like the contract market and deepen the order book, it will be more attractive to whales.

The Competitive Relationship Between Prediction Markets and Meme Coins

“fengdubiying” believes that competition will not form because:

The Meme Race is Over: After pump.fun, the infrastructure has improved, but there is no novelty, and both whales and retail investors have withdrawn due to lack of profit.

Prediction market is in the growth phase: Infrastructure is being built, the freshness is strong, and the attractiveness is continuously increasing.

User needs differ: prediction markets allow everyone to monetize their insights in areas where they excel, rather than pure speculation.

Stronger Attraction Outside the Circle: The desire to prove oneself right is more attractive than cryptocurrency itself.

He believes that the prospects of the prediction market are limitless, and there will be no problem in surpassing the peak period of meme coins in terms of users and capital in the future. Furthermore, as more and more people enter the prediction market, new leaders will emerge, and different individuals will grow in their respective areas of expertise. “I think every stage has its own opportunities. Over the past year, the meme market was better, but now it is over. What we need to do is to stop reminiscing about past glories, let the past be the past, and everyone, whether retail investors or whales, insiders or outsiders, will have their own opportunities in the prediction market. Look forward to a new future.”